Event:
On January 28, the Ministry of Finance announced the financial revenue and expenditure in 2021. In 2021, the national general fiscal revenue was 10.7% year-on-year, the expenditure was 0.3% year-on-year, the government fund revenue was 4.8% year-on-year, and the expenditure was - 3.7% year-on-year.
Comments:
At the end of the year, the general fiscal revenue and expenditure were relatively low. The scale of "excess revenue and expenditure reduction" in the whole year was close to 900 billion yuan. The growth of general fiscal revenue continued to be low, and the annual revenue exceeded the budget by nearly 500 billion yuan. In December, the general fiscal revenue was - 15.8% (Two-year compound - 0.6%) and - 11.2% (Two-year compound - 7.1%) year-on-year; The fiscal revenue of the whole year accounted for 102.5% of the budget and exceeded 488.9 billion yuan. Among them, the central and local governments exceeded the budget by 10.2% and 102.7% respectively, exceeding 2012 and 287.7 billion yuan respectively. At the end of the year, the general fiscal expenditure slowed down, and the annual expenditure was nearly 400 billion yuan lower than the budget, mainly due to the drag of local expenditure. In December, the general fiscal expenditure was - 14.2% (Two-year compound 0%), lower than 8.5% (Two-year compound 12.1%) of the previous value; The annual fiscal expenditure was 98.5% of the budget, 379.8 billion yuan less than the budget, of which the central fiscal expenditure slightly exceeded the budget, and the local fiscal expenditure was 98.4% of the budget, 333.3 billion yuan less than the budget.
Both tax and non tax revenue on the income side rebounded, infrastructure investment such as transportation on the expenditure side accelerated, and most of the rest slowed down. The two-year compound growth rate of tax and non tax revenue rebounded, while real estate and export-related taxes fell. In December, tax revenue and non tax revenue were - 18.3% (Two-year compound - 0.3%) and - 8.3% (Two-year compound - 1.2%) respectively year-on-year. The two-year compound growth rate rebounded by 0.9 and 23.5 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month; Among the main taxes, the compound growth rate of China's value-added tax and enterprise income tax has rebounded in the two years, while the decline of real estate related taxes such as land value-added tax has expanded by 1.7 percentage points, the decline of export related taxes such as tariffs has expanded by 0.7 percentage points, and the export tax rebate has continued to increase. Infrastructure related expenditures such as transportation have accelerated, and the growth of other expenditures has mostly slowed down. In December, the two-year compound growth rate of transportation expenditure increased by 20.9 percentage points to 27.2% compared with the previous month, accelerating for two consecutive months, driving the recovery of the proportion of infrastructure related expenditure; At the same time, the expenditure on health and debt interest payment has also increased relatively rapidly, with a two-year compound growth rate of 16.8% and 21.9% respectively, while the two-year compound growth rate of most of the remaining expenditure items has fallen below zero.
In the whole year, the revenue of government funds also exceeded, but the expenditure was significantly lower than the budget. The broad fiscal balance was about 1.3 trillion yuan. At the end of the year, the revenue of government funds was repaired and the expenditure fell. The annual revenue exceeded, but the expenditure was significantly lower than the budget. In December, the revenue of government funds was 2.8% (Two-year compound 14.1%) year on year, better than - 8.7% (Two-year compound 7.8%) of the previous value; Under the influence of special debt, government fund expenditure fell by 1% year-on-year (Two-year compound 21.4%). Throughout the year, the revenue from government funds accounted for 103.7% of the budget, which was exceeded by the central and local governments; Under the local drag, the expenditure of government funds was 86.6% of the budget, and the balance of revenue and expenditure was nearly 2.1 trillion yuan. The broad fiscal expenditure of the whole year is obviously lower than the budget, resulting in a surplus of about 1.3 trillion yuan at the end of the year. In December, the broad fiscal revenue was - 4.5% (Two-year compound of 8.4%) year on year, better than the previous value of - 10% (Two-year compound of - 0.7%); The year-on-year expenditure was - 8.5% (Two-year compound 7.3%), lower than 15.8% (Two-year compound 18.9%) of the previous value. In the whole year, the broad fiscal expenditure was - 1% (Two-year compound 4.4%) year-on-year, lower than 2% (Two-year compound 6.7%) of the growth rate of the annual budget expenditure. The total balance of general finance and government funds may be about 1.3 trillion yuan.
Reiterate the view: when the "three-step" of steady growth is carried out, the "economic bottom" may appear around the first quarter. The first step is to increase monetary easing, reduce reserve requirements and interest rates, issue local bonds in advance and speed up the issuance, so as to drive the increase of government financing and provide financial support for steady growth; The second step is to accelerate the construction of infrastructure, industrial and other projects represented by major projects to drive the improvement of physical demand. It is expected that the marginal improvement will be the most obvious in the second quarter; The third step is to get out of the "negative cycle" of contraction in real demand, repair economic expectations, and return GDP growth to a reasonable range of 5-5.5%.
Risk tip: the policy effect is not as expected.
