Review:
On January 3, "it's the turn of big finance" stressed that the market's expectation of steady growth is insufficient, and big finance is the winner and loser of 2022 investment.
January 9 "big finance is the current β》 Global liquidity inflection point, after the market has been greatly adjusted, there is style switching.
In January 16th, "retreat or attack to big finance" overestimated the value of the bubble, big finance seemed defensive, but actually the best offense.
January 23 "big finance is still calm" big finance deals with the "chaotic cloud crossing" overseas and waits for the "infinite scenery" to attack again.
Confirm the twists and turns at the bottom and build a "market bottom" on the road; Consume short strength, accumulate long energy and breed upward inflection point. The "central + local" financial policy has been developed in a stable way, and the central + local financial policy has been switched to the basic direction. The inflection point of overseas liquidity is "overcrowding" and "growth bubble". In terms of configuration, the chain of large finance and steady growth (bank and real estate chain), mass consumption (pigs, condiments, textiles and clothing) and service consumption (hotels, catering, tourism and airports) are added as the bottom warehouse configuration.
Confirm the twists and turns at the bottom and build a "market bottom" on the road; Consume short strength, accumulate long energy and breed upward inflection point. The momentum of "sell-off" is declining, and the "bottom of the market" is under construction. 1) Trading volume is an important wind vane. The decline of trading volume represents the change of investor sentiment to a certain extent. On the trading day of the last week before the Spring Festival, the trading volume of all A-Shares decreased from about 1.1 trillion to about 850 billion. 2) In January 2022, the market generally fell. CSI 300 fell by 7.62%, wandequan a fell by 9.46%, and the gem index fell by 12.45%. Absolute beneficiaries, special accounts, private placement, self-employed and other passive positions were reduced based on safety cushion, contract provisions and other considerations, resulting in the phenomenon of "killing more than more". On the whole, the market's "falling" energy has been significantly attenuated.
In the short term, market sentiment is volatile and volatile. Confidence is gradually restored and an upward turning point is bred. 1) Mobile Internet, microblog, wechat group, big V and other we media have accelerated and amplified the group effect. In the process of rising or falling, the market will behave more extreme and faster than before. 2) After nearly a month of rapid adjustment, it will take time for the market to fully restore confidence. In the short term, there are many investors who "look at the picture and speak" with changeable emotions and large fluctuations. The market may bottom in the next few weeks. This process mainly accumulates long energy and consumes short power through the rhythm of "decline - contraction - rebound - bottom exploration - stabilization", so as to gradually breed an upward inflection point of the market. Just as we emphasized in "retreat or attack, rely on big finance" on January 16 and "big finance is still calm" on January 23, investors need to maintain the strategic belief of "flying through the clouds is still calm" in order to meet the beautiful scene of "unlimited scenery on dangerous peaks".
There is a change in style, and we will continue to switch to big finance. We continue the viewpoint of style change emphasized in "it's the turn of big finance" on January 3.
1) from a historical point of view, both the style switching of large and small sectors and the growth cycle switching have never been achieved overnight. The more successful switching has experienced a certain range and several weeks in time and space. At present, the market is in the throes and twists of this style switching. After the successful switching of large and small disk styles, the stock index is expected to usher in the upward trend again.
2) from the perspective of microstructure and chip distribution, the ultimate style is bound to switch. Before the Spring Festival in 2021, food, beverage and medicine reached new highs. In 2020q4 and 2021q1, the position of food and beverage reached 20% (more than + 2 times the variance of the average position of public funds from 2004 to 2020). Four weeks after the Spring Festival, the food and beverage industry index adjusted by nearly 30%, completing the switch from consumption to growth, and then became the protagonist of "double carbon" and "new energy" in 2021. The position allocation of 2021q4 public fund is similar to that of 2020q4 food and beverage, and the deterioration of its microstructure and chip distribution needs to be vigilant.
3) from the consensus expectation of the market, the unlimited expectation of "double carbon" and the expectation of "financial real estate" are breaking. Sniff at the past 2013-2015 years, the bull market in early 2014, because of "mobile games", "video" and "consumer electronics", became the world of gem in 2013. The market scoffed at the "traditional economy" and was in the rush for Internet plus. However, in February 2014, due to the rapid depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, the gem index adjusted by about 16% in one month. In 2014, one belt, one road and one financial sector dominated the market. In this round 2020-2021, new energy and dual carbon are deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and no one cares about finance and real estate. The gem index has decreased by 12.45% over the past months. The excess returns of the industries we mainly recommend, such as banking, real estate, construction, household appliances and so on, are obvious. This signal deserves the attention of investors.
The "steady growth" currency has taken the lead, the finance is following up, the central + local governments make concerted efforts, and the tangential big finance has policy and fundamental support. Before the Spring Festival, we saw that monetary policy sent a clear signal of "steady growth". At present, other supporting measures are being accelerated.
From the central level, the national development and Reform Commission said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency on February 6 that 1) release consumer demand and implement policies and measures to boost bulk consumption such as automobiles and household appliances. Promote the combination of commodity consumption and service consumption, and expand new consumption such as information consumption and green consumption. Accelerate the penetration of the county's rural e-commerce system and express logistics distribution system. 2) We will promote the rational growth of investment, appropriately advance infrastructure investment, and solidly promote the implementation of 102 major projects in the 14th five year plan. We will promote the construction of new infrastructure and increase support for the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries to high-end, intelligent and green.
From a local perspective, the "Hangzhou ten articles" benefit enterprises and rescue them. Hangzhou has issued the notice on Further Doing a good job in "helping enterprises get off to a good start". A single spark of steady growth is starting a prairie fire. 1) Hangzhou real economy enterprises with new loans of more than 10 million yuan and a loan period of more than 1 year will be given an interest subsidy of 1 percentage point (1 year). 2) Increase incentives for manufacturing enterprises. 3) Increase support for the retail catering industry. For all kinds of enterprises and individual businesses with monthly retail sales increment of 10 million yuan or more in 2022, 100000 yuan will be rewarded in a single month. For enterprises and individual businesses with meal income increment of more than 1 million yuan, 50000 yuan will be rewarded in a single month, and the cumulative upper limit of reward for single enterprises and individual businesses is 2 million yuan
The inflection point of overseas liquidity is "overcrowding" and "growth bubble".
The inflection point of overseas liquidity has been formed, and the overvalued sector is "squeezing bubbles". The US non farm payrolls data in January was better than expected, and the probability and expectation of the Fed's one-time interest rate increase of 50 basis points in March are accelerating. On February 3, the Bank of England raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.5%, with a voting ratio of 5-4. Four of them did not disagree with the interest rate increase, but hoped to raise the interest rate by 50 basis points to 0.75% at one time. This is the first time that the Bank of England has raised the interest rate since 2004, and announced the start of the "table reduction" process. The European Central Bank, Lagarde stressed that the duration of inflation is longer than expected, and the statement is more "Eagle" than market expectations. We wrote on January 9 that "big finance is the present" β》 It is mentioned that "the world is facing a liquidity inflection point, and there is great pressure on the overvalued sector". In the past month, the market has once again indicated the need to pay attention to the transmission of overseas liquidity inflection point to emerging markets.
The current round of global water release is quite different from that after the 2008 financial crisis, and the fluctuation and differentiation of the capital market will be greater. Since the covid-19 pneumonia epidemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve has released a lot of water, and the funds flowing to the capital market, especially the stock market, are more obvious and more in proportion than QE after the 2008 financial crisis. The main reasons are: ① the rate of return of the real economy is lower than that of the capital market; ② the real investment and construction are also seriously affected by the epidemic; ③ the global supply chain system is blocked, slowing down the pace of economic and trade exchanges and investment of multinational enterprises; ④ the phenomenon of "helicopter throwing money" and serious residents waiting for work at home. After the corresponding contraction tables, interest rates and liquidity contraction policies are launched, the capital market and stock market will probably suffer greater volatility and greater differentiation. The overvalued sector will squeeze bubbles. The global capital market and investment framework system may need to assess the impact of interest rate upward on asset pricing. This new change may break the "old consensus" that we have adapted to in the past few years. A new "consensus" is being established.
Growth stocks have entered the stage of careful selection, eliminating the false and preserving the true, and based on the medium and long-term layout. After 2 years rash and too much in haste, the growth stocks have entered the stage of "bubble up", "eliminating the false and retaining the truth" and "knowing the Pearl". At the end of the performance forecast, the following annual report and quarterly report are important verification windows for many growth stocks. After the crash, the growth stocks have a short-term technical rebound, which is difficult to operate, showing great differentiation and shock. At this time, we will focus on the direction of medium and long-term economic transformation, basically facing the medium-term opportunities with good performance and matching valuation, such as automotive intelligence, consumer electronics, computers, semiconductor materials, photovoltaic, hydrogen energy, etc.
Investment suggestion: continue the viewpoint of "it's the turn of big finance" on January 3, and add big finance and stabilize the growth chain. Public consumption and service consumption shall be configured as bottom warehouse.
First, the economic downward pressure and steady growth policy hedge, coupled with the marginal improvement of relevant policies for real estate enterprises. For example, at the central level, the construction of affordable housing is accelerated, M & A loans, financial intermediary services for venture enterprises, etc; At the local level, such as Tianjin settlement relaxation, Nanning provident fund relaxation, Zigong loan restriction and provident fund relaxation, Guangxi Guigang deed tax subsidies, etc. These steady growth policies are improving, as the city's policy implementation is being strengthened and the demand side relaxation is being implemented. High quality real estate enterprises and real estate chains have strong alpha attributes, and C-end consumption attributes such as home appliances, home furnishings and consumer building materials are expected to usher in the dual catalysis of valuation repair and performance growth.
Second, the first quarter is a good time point for steady growth measures and monetary easing, which helps the economy climb from the bottom. On the whole, the banking sector at the bottom of valuation and with Pro cyclical attributes is expected to be favored. At the same time, since 2016, the bank has continuously cleared the asset quality + made a large number of full provisions, with less bad book. In the future, the bank may have an upward roe, and the transfer of asset quality will contribute to the recovery of the valuation of the banking sector. As the interest rate cut is worried about the narrowing of interest rate spread and the decline of performance, we need to pay attention to that the current rate cut is significantly lower than the previous round, represented by 5bp and 10bp, which has a relatively limited impact on bank performance.
Third, for the consumption bottom warehouse, on the one hand, benefiting from the transmission from PPI to CPI, we can pay attention to mass consumer goods represented by textile and clothing, pig cycle and condiments. On the other hand, the service consumption under pressure of valuation performance in the past two years has reversed its predicament, the valuation bottom, and the performance has improved actively. We can focus on the service consumption of hotels, catering, tourism, transportation airports and so on.
Risk tip: the spread of the epidemic exceeded expectations and the tightening of the Federal Reserve exceeded expectations.
