The week before the Spring Festival, the A-share market was significantly adjusted by the obvious decline of market risk appetite. Wandequan a fell 5.01%, gem fell 4.14%, CSI 300 fell 4.51%, and market sentiment and profit-making effect fell to the freezing point. We believe that before the Spring Festival, the market risk appetite is obviously downward, and the characteristics of irrational decline are obvious. At present, the market does not have the conditions and characteristics of systematic sharp decline.
Judging from the resumption of the systematic decline of the market in the past few years, it is difficult for a single factor to cause a systematic sharp decline in the market. At least two of the three major influencing factors of fundamentals, liquidity and risk appetite have deteriorated significantly. Evaluate the current market environment: in terms of fundamentals, the steady growth policy before the festival is intensively deployed, and it is expected to accelerate the implementation after the festival; From the perspective of the economic targets set by the local two sessions, the target growth rates of GDP and fixed asset investment in 2022 are significantly increased. With the commencement of the peak season after the festival and the convening of the two sessions in early March, the prospect of economic fundamentals is expected to be further clarified. In terms of liquidity, the current risk-free interest rate is at a historically low level, and monetary easing will continue at the initial stage of credit easing. In terms of risk appetite, overseas fed interest rate hikes and US stock adjustments have suppressed market risk appetite, but this factor is also gradually being digested by the market.
Further, we believe that after the adjustment of the Spring Festival, the negative emotions of the market have been fully released. From the perspective of the hidden risk premium of the whole A, it has reached the 90% place level in the past seven years, and the advantage of A equity assets is more obvious. Combined with the performance of overseas markets during the Spring Festival, it will be found that the risk appetite of overseas markets has warmed up. FTSE China A50 and MSCI China A50 have increased by 2.3% and 2.5% respectively, indicating that the external drag has been mitigated, and this recovery will probably be transmitted to the A-share market after the Spring Festival. Therefore, in the face of “darkness before dawn” and “don’t lose heart and don’t be idle”, the market has entered the late stage of grinding the bottom. “If you want to be bright, persistence is victory”. The market after the festival is expected to make a good start in the year of the tiger.
Then, what the market is most concerned about: is the improvement of market risk appetite driven by the peripheral market sustainable? We believe that from the current point of view, the short-term market risk appetite picks up and the probability of further decline in the future is very low. From the current assessment, a good time window has been reserved from mid February to the two sessions. Of course, the overall reversal of market sentiment may still need to wait for key signals such as clear fundamental signals, improvement of incremental funds and stability of the external environment, indicating that in terms of sustainability, in addition to the social finance data we have repeatedly stressed before. According to the latest observation, the continuous improvement of market risk appetite still needs to go through the medium-term test of real estate and exchange rate.
In terms of configuration, from the annual report performance forecast to observe the interior of the high boom track, the fundamental differentiation has begun to appear. Here, we emphasize once again that we are optimistic about the medium-term industrial trend of the high boom and high valuation track in 2021, but the investment opportunities will shift from most companies in most links of the industrial chain to a few companies in a few links in 2021, and the investment methods will shift to deep sinking companies. We believe that only the leading companies with global industrial competitiveness and a dominant position in the industrial chain can benefit from the high industrial boom. While the valuation is not expensive, the companies with increasingly prominent competitive advantages are the primary varieties of investment. Industry configuration recommendation in February: new energy, electronics, automobile, food and beverage, computer, chemical industry, banking and securities companies.
Risk tip: the spread of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the policy was less than expected, the Sino US relations deteriorated again, and the overseas monetary policy changed
