Macroeconomic
The economy is low before and stable after, and the necessity of steady growth is prominent. The annual growth rate is in the range of 5% - 5.5%. Although there are pressures such as slowing exports, declining real estate and sluggish consumption, the strength and effectiveness of steady growth should not be underestimated.
Inflation
Inflation risk tends to slow down, and the trend of PPI and CPI is interchangeable. PPI began to fall, and loose restrictions gradually receded. The lard cycle is misplaced, and the upward risk of CPI is relatively controllable.
Monetary policy
China's monetary policy is loose before and stable after. It is expected to reduce the reserve requirement and interest rate in the first quarter, but the window period is narrowing. The normalization of foreign fed currencies has accelerated, and the risk of deviation from China US monetary policy still needs to be vigilant.
Fiscal policy
Fiscal policy is in advance, with abundant funds and equal emphasis on new and old infrastructure. Infrastructure construction can be expected in 2022, with a growth rate of 6% - 8%.
Business cycle and asset rotation
The economic cycle has gradually shifted from stagflation to recession, and structural easing can be expected. 2022 has both risks in 2018 and opportunities in 2019. The asset performance is more like that in 2019. There are still structural opportunities for stocks and bonds, but it will be more dangerous than that in 2019. Be vigilant against risks.
Bond market
There is also a fishtail market in the bond market. We should seize the opportunity brought by recession easing, but the space is less than that in 2021, and the opportunity in the first half of the year is better than that in the second half of the year.
A shares
Stock market valuation repair and performance downward game, structural opportunities still exist, and pay attention to the three main lines of steady growth, high-quality development and counter attack of consumer goods price increase. Since there is no trend market, it puts forward higher requirements for seeking potential multiplication.
Real estate
The real estate policy is fine-tuning rather than turning, because the urban policy implementation will be further deepened, the quantity will be reduced and the price will be stable, and the de financialization will continue.
Exchange rate
In the context of the Fed's interest rate hike and contraction, the US dollar has the momentum of appreciation, while China's monetary easing, economic downturn, narrowing trade surplus, and the RMB is facing moderate depreciation pressure, which will be corrected to the range of 6.6-6.9.
Bulk commodities
Bulk commodities priced abroad are operating at a high level, and the correction of varieties priced in China has just begun, but Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) is a rare exception. The damage of global supply chain and the sharp decline of Chinese production capacity have boosted Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices.
Risk tips
The economic downturn accelerated, the strength and effectiveness of policies were less than expected, and the epidemic was repeated.
