Summary:
Food and beverage
Market review: in this period, the food and beverage sector fell as a whole, with a large decline. Among them, food fell 6.41%, Baijiu fell 5.82%, beer fell 3.09%, dairy fell 6.82%, snack food fell 6.41%, condiment fell 8%. Before the holiday, the “currency holding” sentiment of funds at home and abroad overwhelmed the “shareholding” confidence. The market pessimism mainly came from the deterioration of economic fundamentals and the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. After the festival, the market sentiment is expected to calm down, the food and beverage sector is expected to stabilize, and there is little room for a sharp decline; However, with the release of the annual report and the expansion of the scope of the deterioration of the performance of listed companies beyond expectations, the upward resistance of the sector is large. Overall, the food and beverage sector is expected to usher in a market reversal in the second half of the year.
Risk tip: Residents’ consumption is further weakened, and the sales of listed companies are lower than expected.
Computer
*** The differentiation among them is very serious. The targets with higher growth are mainly those concerned by non institutions, showing a trend of hot money speculation as a whole. We can see that with the improvement of the epidemic this week, Britain and the United States have relaxed the control of the epidemic, and the market is expected to be more optimistic about the impact of the epidemic, which will help the overall performance of the industry to improve.
Risk warning: uncertainty of international situation; The upper reaches of enterprises cut spending under inflation; Local debt risk release; The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
Market review: in this period, the bank (CITIC) index fell 3.47%. The easing policy may come to an end in the short term, and the space and pace of policy easing in the future may depend on the performance of macroeconomic data in the first quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the performance growth and asset quality of the industry were better than expected. Compared with the macro disturbance, we paid more attention to the improvement of the “internal strength” of the industry. It is considered that the extremely low valuation level of the current banking sector fully reflects the pessimistic expectations of the market on the credit risk exposure and macroeconomic downturn of the real estate industry. At the same time, considering the good performance growth and continuously improved asset quality of the bank, it is considered that the current sector has high allocation value and maintains the investment rating of “stronger than the market” of the industry. It is suggested to focus on the head state-owned banks and joint-stock banks with solid asset quality, as well as the head urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks in regional economically developed areas.
Risk tip: the asset quality has deteriorated significantly, resulting in systemic risk.
Lithium battery
The current lithium battery index fell 3.18%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. The short-term Shanghai stock index is expected to rebound. Combined with the prosperity of the industry and the trend of the sector, the short-term lithium battery index may rebound, but it is still not optimistic on the whole.
Risk warning: systemic risk; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Industry competition intensifies
Chemical industry
In the current period, CITIC basic chemical industry index fell 3.41%, outperforming Shanghai stock index by 1.16 percentage points and Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index by 1.10 percentage points, ranking seventh among 30 CITIC primary industries. Among CITIC’s tertiary sub industries, 5 rose and 28 fell, with potash fertilizer, fluorine chemical industry and inorganic salt sectors leading the performance. It is suggested to pay attention to: oil and gas exploitation sector and modified plastic sector.
Risk tips: raw material prices fluctuate sharply, product prices decline sharply, and the strength of environmental protection policies is lower than expected
Medicine
Market review: in this period, the pharmaceutical industry as a whole fell 6.83%, while the CSI 300 fell 4.51% in the same period, which was weaker than the market as a whole.
Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to the pharmacy sector, medical devices and traditional Chinese medicine sector in the field of pharmaceutical services. In addition, it is suggested to pay attention to covid-19 specific drug related companies.
Risk tip: the epidemic development exceeded expectations
Securities
In this period, the brokerage sector weakened again and fell significantly. In a short period of time, the brokerage sector will still maintain a relatively weak trend of shock consolidation.
Risk tips: 1 The short-term growth rate is too fast and the growth rate is too large, resulting in the rapid adjustment of securities companies; 2. The weakening of the secondary market of equity and fixed income leads to the failure to continuously improve the operating performance of the securities industry; 3. The progress and strength of comprehensively deepening the reform of the capital market are less than expected.
Photovoltaic
In this period, the photovoltaic industry decreased by 3.07%, slightly less than the CSI 300 index, and the average daily transaction amount was large month on month. Individual stocks in the sector fell more and rose less, with poor profit-making effect. Before the Spring Festival, the price of photovoltaic industry chain stabilized, and the price of silicon material and silicon wafer rebounded, reflecting the improvement of downstream demand. The short-term fed interest rate hike is expected to impact the market, the market risk appetite is reduced, and there are signs of rebound after the continuous decline of the photovoltaic sector. As of January 27, 2022, PE (TTM) of photovoltaic sector was 45.35 times and Pb (LF) was valued at 5.46 times. Considering the industrial conditions, valuation and market sentiment, short-term valuation may still be compressed, but some stocks gradually enter the value range. In the medium term, it is suggested to focus on alleviating the shortage of raw material supply and increasing the demand for photovoltaic installation, and the layout of beneficiary fields, including thermal field materials, photovoltaic glass, integrated module factory and leading enterprises in the field of inverter.
Risk warning: the global installed demand is less than expected; Performance growth was less than expected.
Media
Investment suggestion: after two months of obvious rise, the market of the media sector has adjusted recently. We think it may be that the performance of some companies in Q4 failed to meet expectations due to short-term factors, the profit departure of early mobilization funds, the decline of the overall market of A-Shares and other factors jointly promoted the volatility of the market of the sector. However, we are still optimistic about the future performance of the media sector in the medium and long term. From the perspective of policies, from the “14th five year plan” China Film Co.Ltd(600977) development plan “, the” 14th five year plan “period development plan of the publishing industry, and the” 14th five year plan “digital economy development plan The “14th five year plan” for copyright work and other policies have been issued one after another to clarify the development path and provide guidance for all fields of the media sector. Among them, the 14th five year plan for the development of digital economy focuses on accelerating the construction and application of 5g network, accelerating the integration of digital technology and various industries, and the added value of core industries of digital economy should account for 10% of China’s GDP (7.8% in 2020). Specific development goals such as virtual reality, 8K high-definition video, interactive video, immersive video and cloud games should be developed. In the medium and long term, there is a large space for digital transformation of various industries in China, and the media sub field represented by landing application scenarios may continue to benefit. In terms of valuation, as of January 28, 2022, the valuation of the sector is 20.16 times (TTM, overall method, excluding negative values), 72% of the average p / E ratio of the past five years and 76% of the median, which is close to the valuation level of Q4 in 2018 and still at a low level. Therefore, the investment rating of “stronger than the market” is maintained.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation and virus mutation risk; The tightening of regulatory policies exceeded expectations; Intensified market competition; Goodwill impairment risk; The quality of output content is lower than expected; The characteristics of project system lead to unstable performance.
Machinery
In this period, CS machinery sector fell 5.0%, underperforming CSI 300 (- 4.51%) by 0.49 PCT, ranking 17th in 30 CS primary industries. In the short term, it is recommended to patiently wait for the adjustment of the core track and continue to pay attention to the mainstream growth track sector represented by new energy photovoltaic wind power equipment, lithium battery equipment and specialized new small giant enterprises for a long time. The policy has repeatedly focused on stabilizing growth and benefiting the leaders of mechanical oil and gas equipment, forklifts, aerial work vehicles and other sectors.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; The price of raw materials continues to rise sharply; Major changes have taken place in the new energy policy.
Correspondence
Market review:
In the current period, the communication (CITIC) index fell by 5.85%, underperforming the CSI 300 index (- 4.51%) in the same period, ranking 21st among 30 CITIC primary industries. In the short term, the downward expectation of risk appetite has a strong pressure on the science and technology sector, and the upward momentum is limited. It mainly focuses on structural investment opportunities. It is expected that the pace of data center construction will be accelerated in 2022, the demand for upgrading servers and switches in data will increase, and the demand for PCB products related to high-quality digital communication is expected to be released. At the same time, we should pay attention to relevant investment opportunities in the field of Internet of things, such as vehicle module, power Internet of things, etc. It is recommended to focus on four sectors: cable, main equipment supplier, PCB and Internet of things.
Risk tips: 1) the Internet of things is not playing as expected; 2) 5g construction progress is less than expected; 3) Sino US science and technology game uncertainty.
Household appliances
This week, CITIC’s home appliance industry index fell 5.06%, ranking 19th in CITIC’s first-class industry classification. In the short term, under the sector rotation and the switching between high and low market conditions, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of Companies in the head of each segment of the industry.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation; The market demand is less than expected; Industry competition pattern intensifies; Risk of continuous fluctuations in raw material prices, shipping costs and exchange rates.
Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery
In this period, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (CITIC II) industry fell by 2.02%, the CSI 300 index fell by 4.51%, and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry outperformed the benchmark index by 2.49 percentage points. From the perspective of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry, most sub industries showed varying degrees of decline this week, among which the aquatic products processing sector experienced the largest decline, closing down 22.63%. Suggestions: focus on the pet food sector in the high growth track and the seed industry sector with policy expectations.
Risk warning: the risk of sharp fluctuations in livestock and poultry prices and raw material prices; Risk that the progress of relevant policies of seed industry is less than expected; The aggravation and deterioration of African swine fever has led to the risk that the slaughter volume of pigs is less than expected.
