Key points
Strategic view: excessive pessimism is expected to be repaired
The market continued to adjust in January. From the beginning of the year to January 27, the main A-share indexes fell, of which the China Securities 1000 index and the gem index fell the most, down 13.1% and 12.5% respectively. The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell relatively small, down 4.7% and 6.5% respectively. Among all industries, only banks rose, while other industries fell. Since the beginning of the year, the overall performance of the market has been weak, mainly because the market is worried about the future economy and the decline of A-share earnings, while the recent geopolitics and the fermentation of the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates have also significantly disturbed the market.
In January, MLF interest rate and LPR interest rate decreased successively. On January 17, the central bank lowered the medium-term lending facility rate (MLF) and the seven-day reverse repo rate 10bp to 2.85% and 2.1%. On January 20, the LPR interest rate was also reduced, and the one-year and five-year LPR were reduced by 10bp and 5bp respectively. Since the second half of 2021, with the increasing downward pressure on the economy, the central economic work conference has further clarified that the economic work in 2022 should be “stable”, and the people’s Bank of China has also guided the credit growth rate to maintain a reasonable range by comprehensively reducing reserve requirements and interest rates. If the economy still faces great downward pressure in the future, the possibility of further interest rate cuts cannot be ruled out.
Market pessimism is expected to repair, and the spring market is still worth looking forward to. Historically, the “spring agitation” market appears almost every year and is rarely absent, but its occurrence time is different. In some years, there are noteworthy markets after late January. The logic of this spring’s market is still established. The market style switching trend since December 21 is also the embodiment of the restless market to a certain extent. In the future, demand side policies and financial data may be the focus of attention.
In terms of allocation, it is suggested to focus on two main lines: steady growth and consumption.
Main line 1: steady growth direction. It is expected that the “steady growth” policy will be fully implemented in 2022 and will become one of the core mainlines in the capital market. In recent years, the power of the “steady growth” policy is more to hedge the economic downturn, but it is difficult to make the economy rise again. However, for the capital market, the main line of “steady growth” is still very noteworthy. The growth rate of fixed asset investment rose in the upward range, and the relevant sectors of “steady growth” performed prominently. Among the five upward growth ranges of fixed asset investment since 2010, the sectors with the best overall performance include banking, real estate, building materials, household appliances, construction and other industries that typically benefit from the “steady growth” policy. And in each upward range, the performance of “stable growth” related industries ranks at the forefront. It is suggested to pay attention to traditional infrastructure such as building materials and new infrastructure such as wind power and photovoltaic.
Main line 2: the consumption sector benefiting from the narrowing of the scissors gap of consumption inflation. Historically, there have been three periods in which the inflation scissors have narrowed significantly since 2010, during which the consumer sector has performed well. At the same time, from the perspective of performance, the comparative advantage of the 22-year performance of the consumer sector may be more obvious. From the perspective of valuation, the overall valuation of the consumer sector is still not low, but the relative adjustment range of valuation has been very obvious. The current valuation has certain advantages. Suggestions: 1) high definition Baijiu and medicine. 2) Household appliances and mass consumer goods benefiting from the subsidy policy.
Everbright strategy gold stock portfolio in February 2022: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Shandong Wit Dyne Health Co.Ltd(000915) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) .
Risk tip: the economic growth is significantly lower than expected; Covid-19 epidemic situation worsened significantly; Consumer demand fell sharply short of expectations.
