Market review: the two cities went down again, and the capital flowed out sharply to the north
Today, the Shanghai and Shenzhen index fluctuated downward throughout the day, and the decline widened in the late trading. As of the close, the Shanghai index fell 1.78% to 3394.25 and the Shenzhen index fell 2.77% to 13398.84. In terms of sectors, the general decline was reproduced, with computers, media, mechanical equipment, electronics and social services leading the decline. The turnover of the two cities was 822.97 billion yuan, an increase of 3.63% over the previous trading day and a contraction of 12.61% over the average of the previous five days. The net sales of Shanghai Stock connect were 7.724 billion yuan, the net sales of Shenzhen Stock connect were 6.9 billion yuan, and the net sales of northbound funds throughout the day were 14.624 billion yuan.
Market focus:
On January 26 local time, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to end the asset purchase in March and start the table shrinkage in the future. The federal benchmark interest rate remained unchanged at 0% - 0.25%, but it was clear that it was appropriate to raise interest rates soon in the future. Since then, Fed chairman Powell said at the press conference that the possibility of raising interest rates at each FOMC meeting is not ruled out, and the overall range of interest rate increase has not been determined. The current economic situation means that we can act earlier or even faster than last time, and there is a lot of room to raise interest rates.
Strategy suggestion: the short-term mood fluctuation is expected to be repaired, and the bargain hunting layout of the high boom sector
Today, the A-share market suffered another heavy setback, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen index fell sharply, with a total of more than 4389 stocks falling and only 266 stocks rising. On the whole, it may be mainly due to the hawkish signal released again by the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve, which led to a significant outflow of funds from the north.
At the macro-economic level, the Federal Reserve released the voice of "hawks" again overnight, probably starting to raise interest rates in March and then starting to shrink the table, which is basically in line with the recent market expectations. However, Powell's statement that "interest rates will be discussed at every meeting" was slightly more hawkish than expected, which led to the rapid rise of US bond yields and the intraday plunge of the three major stock indexes of US stocks. We believe that the number of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve will still be about 3-4 in 2022, and the tough attitude towards interest rate increases may ease under the background of the fall of inflationary pressure in the second half of the year. Therefore, this round of interest rate increases may be fast and slow, while the contraction may start in the middle of the year. The current market panic of US stocks is still strong, and after the stimulation of unlimited easing policy after the long bull epidemic, the current valuation level of US stocks is high, or will continue to adjust. However, we still prefer the follow-up performance of the A share market. On the one hand, China's monetary policy has been restored to normal after the outbreak, and the bubble in the stock market is limited. Especially after the collapse of the holding group in early 2021, the bubble in the consumer sector that has been adjusted has been fully squeezed out, the value is at a reasonable level, and some sub sectors are at a low level in history. The policy difference of internal loosening and external tightening is also a clear card, and China's policy environment is better. In addition, the tendency of overseas funds to increase their holdings of Chinese assets is obvious, which is expected to increase the amount of energy in the market. It is suggested to balance the mentality, have a strong certainty of bargain hunting layout performance, have a high degree of industrial prosperity, and wait for the opportunities brought by the marginal repair of market sentiment after the year for the sectors such as home appliances, medicine and biology, national defense and military industry, social services and so on.
Risk tip: the macro-economy is less than expected, the national epidemic is more than expected, and the geopolitical risk is intensified
