Key investment points:
Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the central bank: monetary policy should be stable. Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the central bank, issued a document in China finance, detailing the challenges and policy ideas of monetary policy in 2022. The article points out that to deeply understand the connotation of the flexibility and moderation of prudent monetary policy, first, we should keep the word steady and strive for progress in stability, second, we should adjust flexibly, and third, we should measure and price moderately.
In 2022, the monetary policy will focus on four aspects: first, maintain the stable growth of the total amount of money and credit, comprehensively use a variety of monetary policy tools, timely and appropriately release liquidity, iron out the short-term fluctuation of liquidity in time, make cross cycle adjustment of liquidity, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and promote the stable operation of money market interest rates. Second, guide the steady optimization of credit structure. Structural monetary policy tools actively do a good job in “addition”, make precise efforts, and increase credit support for key areas and weak links. Third, promote the reduction of comprehensive financing costs of enterprises. We should improve the formation and transmission mechanism of market-oriented interest rates, continue to improve the policy interest rate system with the open market operating interest rate as the short-term policy interest rate and the medium-term lending convenience interest rate as the medium-term policy interest rate, cultivate the inter-bank benchmark interest rate system represented by the repurchase interest rate (DR) of deposit institutions in the inter-bank market, and dredge the interest rate transmission mechanism. Give full play to the effectiveness of LPR reform, give full play to the role of interest rate self-discipline mechanism, standardize the competitive order of deposit market, stabilize the cost of bank liabilities, guide the decline of enterprise loan interest rate, and effectively promote the reduction of enterprise comprehensive financing cost. Fourth, keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level.
The profit growth of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size fell
In December 2021, industrial enterprises above Designated Size achieved a total profit of 734.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, lower than the previous value of 9.0%; In 2021, the profit of Industrial Enterprises above designated size was 8709.21 billion yuan, an increase of 34.3%, an increase of 39.8% over the same period in 2019, and an average increase of 18.2% in two years. 18.9% lower than the previous value. Among them, nearly 80% of the industry profits increased.
Overall, the profit margin of industrial enterprises dropped significantly in December. The proportion of upstream profits continued the trend of last month and continued to fall. The profits of the middle and lower reaches improved for two consecutive months. However, the operating pressure of downstream industries, especially small and micro enterprises, is still large, the number of loss making enterprises is still large, the amount of loss increased rapidly year-on-year, and there is pressure for the continuous improvement of the efficiency of industrial enterprises. It is expected that the profit center of the whole year will still maintain the transmission trend from upstream to middle and downstream, and continue to pay attention to the industry opportunities under the transmission of PPI to CPI, as well as the carbon neutralization, new infrastructure, traditional infrastructure and real estate related industries under the expectation of steady growth in the first quarter.
Financing funds
On January 26, the balance of A-share financing was 1657.507 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 7.328 billion yuan; The balance of margin trading was 1757.141 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 7.191 billion yuan. The balance of financing minus securities lending was 1557.873 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 7.465 billion yuan.
Land stock connect and Hong Kong stock connect
On January 27, the net purchase transaction of land stock connect on that day was -14.624 billion yuan, including 45.697 billion yuan of purchase transaction and 60.321 billion yuan of sales transaction, with a cumulative net purchase transaction of 166.3818 billion yuan. Hong Kong stock connect had a net purchase transaction of HK $4.646 billion on the same day, including a purchase transaction of HK $17.869 billion and a sale transaction of HK $13.224 billion, with a cumulative net purchase transaction of HK $2228.625 billion.
Money market
On January 27, Bank Of Shanghai Co.Ltd(601229) inter-bank offered rate Shibor’s overnight interest rate was 1.6140%, down 12.60bp, Shibor’s weekly interest rate was 2.1200%, up 3.20bp. The weighted interest rate of pledged repo of deposit institutions was 1.5858% overnight, down 13.65bp and 2.0385% a week, up 2.54bp. The 10-year maturity yield of China national debt was 2.7348%, up 2.02bp.
Overseas stock market
On January 27, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 34160.78 points, down 0.02%; The S & P 500 index closed at 4326.51 points, down 0.54%; The NASDAQ index closed at 13352.78, down 1.40%. European stock markets, French CAC index closed at 7023.80 points, up 0.60%; Germany’s DAX index closed at 15524.27 points, up 0.42%; The FTSE 100 index closed at 7554.31, up 1.13%. In the Asia Pacific market, the Nikkei index closed at 26170.30 points, down 3.11%; The Hang Seng Index closed at 23807.00, down 1.99%.
Foreign exchange rate
On January 27, the dollar index rose 0.77% to 97.2288. The euro fell 0.87% against the dollar to 1.1144. The dollar rose 0.61% against the yen to 115.3700. The pound fell 0.59% against the dollar to 1.3385. The spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3645, depreciating by 0.67%. The spot exchange rate of offshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3685, depreciating by 0.53%. The central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3382, depreciating by 0.22%.
Gold, crude oil
On January 27, Comex gold futures fell 1.12% to close at US $1798.40 / ounce. WTI crude oil futures rose 0.16% to close at US $87.29/barrel. Brent crude oil futures rose 0.40% to close at US $88.88/barrel. COMEX copper futures fell 0.92% to close at US $4.4160/lb. LME copper three-month futures fell 1.82% to close at US $9725 / ton.
