Investment suggestion: we judge that the A-share market can still achieve positive returns in the first quarter of 2022, but the index performance may not be as good as that in 2021, and there is a structural market. We recommend focusing on high growth tracks with performance certainty. Suggested configuration: (1) carbon neutralization theme. At present, China is fully promoting the goal of “carbon neutrality”. Clean energy such as wind power and photovoltaic is accelerating the replacement of traditional energy. We can pay attention to new energy, energy storage, energy conservation and environmental protection. (2) New economic theme. High end technology manufacturing industry may be an important driving force for future economic growth. It is suggested to pay attention to chip semiconductors and high-end intelligent manufacturing with accelerated domestic substitution and rapid growth of the industry. (3) Emerging consumption themes. At present, China’s PPI is at a high level and CPI rises slowly. The subsequent scissors difference between the two is expected to converge, and the industrial profits will shift from the upstream to the middle and downstream. It is expected that there will be some opportunities in the consumer sector. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the food, beverage and household appliances sectors. (4) Epidemic Damage theme. With the further improvement of vaccination rates in developing countries such as Africa, Mexico and Brazil, the global epidemic is expected to be further controlled. There is momentum for valuation and repair in the affected sectors of the epidemic, which can be paid attention to: aviation, airports, tourism, hotels, cinemas, etc.
Focus on hot topics: (1) Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard is expected to boost the prosperity of the game sector. On January 18, 2022, Microsoft announced that it would buy Activision Blizzard, a publisher of game development and interactive entertainment content, for us $68.7 billion in cash. After the acquisition, Microsoft will become the third largest game company in the world after Tencent and Sony. Overall, this premium acquisition once again reflects the long-term optimism of technology companies on the game sector. At the same time, as an important display form of meta universe landing, games are expected to boost the overall valuation of the game industry and improve the prosperity of the industry. Compared with overseas game companies, the valuation of Chinese head game companies is relatively low, so it is recommended to track the industry. Relevant targets include: G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) , Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) , Tencent holdings, etc. (2) The 14th five year plan for the development of modern comprehensive transportation system was issued to help the development of new energy infrastructure. On January 18, 2022, the State Council issued the development plan of modern comprehensive transportation system in the 14th five year plan. On the whole, the scale of infrastructure construction during the 14th Five Year Plan period contracted compared with the 13th Five Year Plan period, and the growth rate of infrastructure construction slowed down. However, it is not difficult to find that the plan has made clear requirements for the green and low-carbon transformation action of transportation, including the construction of charging and replacement facilities network and the promotion of new energy and clean energy transportation equipment. Superimposed with the policy of “steady growth”, new energy infrastructure and other related industries may benefit. Relevant targets include: Qingdao Tgood Electric Co.Ltd(300001) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) . (3) LPR cut as scheduled, or will improve market expectations. The reduction of 1-year and 5-year LPR is conducive to reducing the financing cost of small, medium-sized and micro enterprises, boosting market confidence and stimulating the financing demand of market subjects. Therefore, it is suggested to pay attention to industries sensitive to LPR, such as power, real estate, etc. Related targets include Vanke A, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) .
Revenue performance of hot topics: among the hot topics last week, the top gainers were e-government, China Radio and television, big data, financial technology, operating system and applet. Affected by the orientation of digital economic policy, the heat of relevant sectors has been further improved. The top five declines were in vitro diagnosis, covid-19 pneumonia detection, exclusive drugs, blood products and biological laboratories. The main reason is that the current valuation of relevant concept sectors is high, and the recent tightening of funds has led to adjustment.
From January 17, 2022 to January 21, 2022, among shenwanyi industries, the top five gainers last week were computer, coal, banking, non bank finance and communication; The top five declines were biomedicine, beauty care, agriculture, forestry and fish husbandry, national defense and military industry, and automobile. From the cumulative net inflow last week, the top five cumulative net inflows are banks, non bank finance, computers, coal and real estate; The top five cumulative net outflows are medicine and biology, basic chemicals, electronics, power equipment and media.
Risk warning: the promotion of relevant policies is not as expected; Uncertainty about the global epidemic.
