Abstract: since mid December 2021, the global epidemic has deteriorated significantly due to the significant spread of "Omicron" variant covid-19 virus. Among the major developed economies, the epidemic situation in the United States, the euro zone and Japan has deteriorated significantly, while the epidemic situation in the UK has passed the peak and began to improve significantly. Due to the low death rate of "Omicron" virus, the epidemic restriction measures in Europe have been strengthened to a certain extent, while the restriction measures in the United States are still lax. The epidemic situation in many countries in Southeast Asia has also deteriorated significantly, and the global production chain may be slightly restricted. US production and terminal inflation continued to rise, the inflection point of overall inflation appeared, and the constraints of high inflation and the deterioration of the epidemic on us demand appeared. The December meeting of the Federal Reserve and the speeches of several officials showed the intention to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy, the yield of US bonds rose sharply, and the US dollar fell under the impact of no further hawkish remarks in Powell's congressional testimony and a slowdown in demand. In the short term, the yields of the US dollar and US bonds are still able to move slightly. Terminal inflation in the euro zone is moderate and upward, the demand for tightening policy of the European Central Bank is not strong, and the short-term support of the euro is slightly weak. The Bank of England may continue to raise interest rates, and the pound may fluctuate in the short term. Japan's inflation is weak, the economic recovery is beginning to be dragged down by the deterioration of the epidemic, and the yen may fall slightly in the short term. Although the interest rate gap between China and the United States has shrunk, China's exports have remained strong, and the trade surplus has reached a record high, which has formed a certain support for the RMB. The RMB may be stable and strong in the short term.
Key words: "Omicron" virus; Inflation; Federal Reserve; exchange rate
