Macro strategy Daily: the central bank wrote an article looking forward to the monetary policy. This year, it will stabilize the word and prevent credit contraction

Summary:

Asset performance and capital changes:

China's top five commodity prices: Glass 3.63%, coking coal 3.32%, soybean II 2.99%, rapeseed meal 2.91%, soda ash 2.89%; Huyin - 2.58%, No. 20 glue - 2.12%, Hujin - 1.83%, HuJiao - 1.75%, pulp - 1.68%

The top five (100 million yuan) of precipitation capital inflow and outflow: Apple 1.81, ethylene glycol 1.72, soybean meal 1.41, Shanghai tin 1.11 and fuel oil 0.66; Shanghai nickel -4.94, iron ore -3.91, Shanghai copper -3.68, Shanghai silver -3.11, Shanghai gold -2.78

Inflow and outflow of precipitation funds from the sector (100 million yuan): nonferrous metals 3.94, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) - 1.89, precious metals - 5.89, black building materials - 7.38, energy and chemical industry - 8.50

Important news and economic data:

Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the central bank, wrote an article on the review and Prospect of monetary policy. The article said that we should deeply understand the connotation of the flexibility and moderation of prudent monetary policy. First, we should keep the word steady and strive for progress while maintaining stability. The second is to adjust flexibly. Both optimize the structure and stabilize the total amount. Third, the quantity and price should be moderate. We should not only prevent the resonance between the economic downturn and the contraction of total credit, but also avoid the sharp rise of "flood irrigation", maintain the steady increase of total money and credit, keep the growth rate of money supply and social financing scale basically match the economic growth, and promote the reduction of comprehensive financing costs of enterprises.

In December 2021, industrial enterprises above Designated Size achieved a total profit of 734.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%; In 2021, the profit of Industrial Enterprises above designated size was 8709.21 billion yuan, an increase of 34.3%, with an average increase of 18.2% in two years.

The initial real GDP of the United States in the fourth quarter of 2021 increased by 6.9% month on month, expected to increase by 5.5% and the previous value increased by 2.3%.

Us durable goods orders in December 2021 decreased by 0.9% month on month, expected to decrease by 0.5% and the previous value decreased by 3.2%.

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States in the week to January 22 was 260000, which is expected to be 260000, compared with the previous value of 290000.

Risk tip: China's real estate decline and the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy

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