Main points:
As of January 28, the “two sessions” have been held in 30 provinces (cities and districts) except Tianjin. This report sorts out the key points of the two sessions from the aspects of economy, investment, consumption, real estate, industry, reform, people’s livelihood and risk, and emphasizes eight core elements.
Element 1: Determination of local economic growth, employment and price targets
Most provinces and cities have lowered the 2022 growth target. Combined with the 30 provinces and cities that have held the “two sessions”, the average GDP target growth rate is 6.35%, and the targets of Beijing and Shanghai are more than 5% and about 5.5% respectively. It is expected that the national GDP growth target will fall in the desirable range of 5% – 5.5%, which is set at about 5.5%. At the end of 2021, the national unemployment rate dropped to the level before the epidemic. The average target of the surveyed unemployment rate in cities and towns of all provinces and cities in 2022 was 5.5%, basically unchanged in 2021; The CPI target of all provinces in 2022 is about 3%. We expect CPI to rise and PPI to fall in 2022.
Element 2: expand effective investment and focus on “two new and one heavy”
1. Expand effective investment and appropriately advance the layout of major infrastructure. The old infrastructure is dominant, and the new infrastructure is also very important. All localities have basically achieved the growth target of fixed asset investment in 2021, that is, the average growth of fixed asset investment in all provinces in 2021 is 9.13%, higher than the average target of 8.27%. In 2022, the target growth rate of fixed asset investment in most provinces is about 8%, with a simple average of 8.15%, which is basically the same as the target value in 2021. Specifically, many provinces clearly put forward the “moderately advanced layout of major infrastructure” and speed up the construction progress of major projects around the “two new and one heavy”. In addition to the traditional infrastructure construction such as “railway public infrastructure”, 5g base station construction, UHV, intercity high-speed railway and urban rail transit, charging piles of new energy vehicles, big data center, artificial intelligence The importance of new infrastructure such as industrial Internet has increased, and there are other projects such as energy, water conservancy, pipeline, municipal administration, ecological environment, disaster prevention and mitigation. Some provinces have given specific planned investment scale.
2. Promote the construction of new urbanization and coordinate the coordinated development of urban and rural areas and regions. Many provinces plan to build central cities——
An important node city – the radiation circle of county-level city to coordinate the development between urban and rural areas, and pay attention to the construction of urban agglomeration and modern metropolitan area, urban renewal, sponge City, etc.
Element 3: stabilize traditional bulk consumption, develop new consumption formats, release the potential of counties and townships, and build characteristic commercial streets
All localities have actively laid out policies to promote consumption. There are three points to focus on consumption: 1) stabilize the consumption of bulk commodities such as automobiles, household appliances and furniture, develop new consumption formats such as live e-commerce and social e-commerce, and expand the first store economy, first-time economy, green consumption, smart retail, digital consumption, sports consumption, medical and health care, elderly care New consumption scenarios such as housekeeping services; 2) Unleash the consumption potential of counties and townships, promote the construction of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale markets, and promote the transfer of new energy vehicles and smart appliances to the countryside and the exchange of old for new; 3) Strengthen the construction of trade center cities and consumer market landmarks, and build characteristic commercial streets according to local characteristics (such as Wuhan, Changsha, Shenzhen, Tibet, Shanxi, etc.).
Element 4: develop affordable rental housing and promote the “old reform” in the tone of “no speculation in housing and housing”
On the basis of the general tone of “housing, housing and non speculation”, all localities adhere to the simultaneous development of rental and purchase, develop the long-term rental housing market and build indemnificatory rental housing. According to incomplete statistics, according to the size of indemnificatory rental housing disclosed by the local two sessions, the total number is more than 1.1 million. In addition, all localities continue to promote the “old reform”, and the provinces and cities with a significant increase in scale include Hubei, Chongqing, Zhejiang, Sichuan and so on. The scale of “shed reform” has decreased.
Element 5: deeply implement the innovation driven strategy, cultivate “specialized and new” small and medium-sized enterprises, and pay attention to the new economy
1. All localities deeply implement the innovation driven development strategy, break through the “neck” link, actively cultivate “specialized and special new” small and medium-sized enterprises, promote the development of high-tech enterprises, and focus on advanced materials, high-end chips, industrial software, biomedicine, biological breeding and other fields.
2. Specifically, intelligent manufacturing, modern service industry and digital economy are important starting points for industrial transformation and upgrading in all provinces, and the development of relevant industries is expected to accelerate in the future, such as 1) integrated circuit, communication, intelligent terminal, network security, 5g, advanced computing, new power and new energy source equipment, Internet of things, engineering machinery, high-end new materials, fine chemicals Strategic emerging industries such as biomedicine; 2) Modern logistics, cultural tourism, scientific and creative services, business consulting, finance and insurance, health care, domestic property and other modern service industries; 3) Blockchain, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, big data and other new generation information technology industries; Carry out the construction of digital security, digital economy, digital government and digital social ecosystem.
Element 6: deepen reform, focus on the reform of state-owned enterprises, optimize the business environment and factor marketization reform
In 2022, the work reports of provincial and municipal governments proposed to continue to deepen the reform, suggesting to focus on the reform of state-owned enterprises (completing the three-year action task of state-owned enterprise reform), optimizing the business environment (implementing the new tax reduction and fee reduction, deepening the reform of “decentralization, management and service”) and the market-oriented reform of factors (land, technology and data).
Element 7: other key policies, focusing on pension, education, “three children”, “double carbon”, rural revitalization, etc
1. The problem of aging has intensified, and the construction of pension service system has been accelerated, including the implementation of the national overall planning of basic pension insurance for enterprise employees;
2. Consolidate the achievements of “double reduction” and fully implement the “three child” policy and supporting measures;
3. Steadily and orderly implement the “double carbon” goal, promote the green transformation of high energy consuming industries and strengthen the construction of new energy. The work reports of some provincial governments listed the energy consumption reduction indicators and renewable energy indicators per unit of GDP, strictly controlled the scale and number of high energy consuming industries, and orderly promoted the green and low-carbon transformation of key industries such as steel, building materials and petrochemical; Improve the “1 + n” policy system of carbon peak carbon neutralization, steadily and orderly implement the “double carbon” goal, and prevent “carbon rush” and “Sports” carbon reduction; In terms of new energy, we will strengthen the planning and construction of charging piles for new energy vehicles, develop carbon sink economy, promote the construction of green energy storage bases, and vigorously develop renewable energy such as photovoltaic, wind energy and biomass energy.
4. Promote the coordinated development of urban and rural areas and rural revitalization, improve the development level of modern agriculture, improve the R & D and application level of agricultural machinery and equipment, and finally improve the income of farmers.
Element 8: hold the bottom line of no systemic financial risk and pay attention to financial, corporate debt and other risks.
The statements on risk prevention in the work report of local governments in 2022 focus on the fields of financial risk (non-performing debt, urban commercial banks, rural commercial banks, virtual currency, etc.), enterprise debt risk (Governance of malicious arrears and evasion of debts), local government implicit debt (stable resolution of implicit debt), secondary risks of real estate, prevention of disorderly expansion of capital, food and medicine safety, etc.
Risk tip: steady growth is less than expected, economic growth is less than expected, and monetary policy is tightened more than expected.
