Looking back on Thursday's A-share market, A-share ended miserably again. The opening price of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fluctuated. At the beginning of the trading, the consistency of the stock index fluctuated and fell. The stock index plunged once. Under the protection of the big finance, the stock index once bottomed out. However, in the afternoon, the stock index fell again and hovered at a low level. Finally, the three major indexes closed at a long negative.
As mentioned in Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) , the market's concern about the global monetary tightening and the general decline of the global stock market are the main reasons for the recent gloom, the response of the Chinese market is more based on the collective pessimism on the emotional side. At the same time, the decline of the Spring Festival holiday and the contraction of trading also reduce the market sentiment .
On the other hand, the tone of China's overall broad credit and broad currency has not changed, and there is plenty of room for stimulus policy, maintaining patience and regaining confidence may be what we should do at present . Operationally it is suggested to avoid excessive pessimism, rationally hold shares and look forward to the repair market after the festival , move less and look more, try to layout defensive sectors, and avoid blind bottom reading at the same time.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities pointed out that the market fluctuated again under the influence of the Federal Reserve meeting on Thursday, but the volume can be reduced. Considering the cautious long and short funds before the festival, the market trend still needs to wait and see. It is expected that the market will continue the shock consolidation pattern, focusing on the rotation rhythm of the sector and the change of volume energy . In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, food and beverage, household appliances, electrical equipment, TMT and other industries.
As for the future, Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) pointed out that it is difficult to analyze the current market trend with technology, and we need to pay attention to the stabilization of mood. On the positive side, has increased steadily recently, and institutions have increased their holdings of their own funds, which is a good signal for the current market . On the whole, opportunities fall out and risks rise out. We still need to stay focused and look for certain opportunities in uncertainty .
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) mentioned that still preferred the follow-up performance of the A share market . On the one hand, China's monetary policy had been restored to normal after the outbreak, and the bubble in the stock market was limited. Especially after the collapse of the holding group in early 2021, the bubble in the consumption sector that continued to adjust has been fully squeezed out of , and the valuation is at a reasonable level. The valuation of some sub sectors is at an all-time low.
On the other hand, the poor policy of internal loosening and external tightening is also a clear card, and China's policy environment is better. In addition, the tendency of overseas funds to increase their holdings of Chinese assets is obvious, which is expected to increase the amount of energy in the market. It is suggested to balance the mentality, home appliances, medicine and biology, national defense and military industry, social services and other sectors with strong certainty of bargain hunting layout performance, high industrial prosperity and large repair space for valuation, wait for the opportunity brought by the marginal repair of market sentiment after the year .
Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) said that in terms of the reasons for the market adjustment , China's current liquidity environment is loose and friendly, various steady growth policies continue to work, and there are no obvious bad and negative events. The direct trigger for the recent market adjustment may be that market investors are worried that the Fed's continued interest rate hike will trigger a global liquidity crunch and affect the A-share market.
The agency further analyzed that in the short term, we believe that the current adjustment of A-share market is coming to an end, and the market situation in February after the Spring Festival is very worthy of expectation. First, the current market adjustment range has been relatively sufficient; Second, the current policies, measures and environment are very friendly to the market; Third, from the statistical law, the probability of A-share market rising in February is very high .
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) pointed out that short-term disturbance does not change the medium and long-term good trend of A-Shares . 1) Data analysis: whether it is the horizontal comparison of stock bond yield, the vertical calculation of the quantile of equity risk premium, or the calculation of the statistical law of historical calendar effect before and after the Spring Festival, it shows that A shares have high cost performance and high probability of repair after the festival .
2) logical deduction: under the overweight of steady growth policy, A shares are expected to gradually usher in the bottom of valuation, bottom of sentiment and bottom of profit . The profit growth of A-Shares in the second half of the year is expected to pick up quarter by quarter and further support the trend repair of a shares.
3) structural foundation: China's macro, meso and micro level transformation supports the medium and long-term slow bull trend of A-Shares .
Macroscopically, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the short-term adjustment of the A-share market deviates from the trend of China's monetary easing, and external changes such as the loose exit of the Federal Reserve will not restrict the Chinese policy style of " self dominated ", nor change the trend of long-term additional allocation of A-shares by foreign capital.
Secondly, the short-term adjustment of the market has also deviated from the fundamental trend supported by policies. The time point of the greatest downward pressure on China's economic growth has passed. After the monetary force exceeds expectations, the relay of other ministries and local governments is expected to form a joint force of policies, "policy bottom" has been made clear .
Finally, the policy exit path of the Federal Reserve in the first half of the year has been clear, the sensitivity of US stocks and US bonds has been reduced after the full response in the early stage, it is expected that the actual risk of overseas markets during the long holiday is not .
In short, under the resonance of "emotional bottom" and "market bottom", the overshoot of A shares brought better buying points for the market in the first half of the year.
In terms of operational strategy, YueKai securities mentioned that investors should "look at the quantity of scenery" . Under the theme of "focus on me", steady growth is still the focus of the market in the near future. Whether it is broad money or credit, the policy underpinning economy is worth looking forward to. For the future market, the pre holiday market pursues certainty, and the performance of blue chip in the large market is better than that of small and medium-sized markets. The policy expectation after the holiday is expected to rise again, and the market turns to pursue high elasticity. It is expected that the steady growth in the first quarter is still the main market, and it is expected to take the lead in opening a wave of market dominated by large cap stocks .
In terms of allocation ideas, first, pay attention to the performance of large cap stocks in the near future. There is a strong demand for phased reverse switching in large cap stocks. focus on the main line of steady growth and undervalued value, real estate, building materials and household appliances in the infrastructure and real estate chain, as well as leisure services, food and beverage and other consumer industries to expand domestic demand .
Second, pay attention to the performance of small and medium-sized markets throughout the year. This year's marginal change at the denominator end has supported the trend of small and medium-sized stocks. In the stage of steady growth, we pay attention to the investment direction dominated by expected improvement and relative profit growth, energy transformation, high-end manufacturing, digital economy and other directions supported by high-quality transformation and development .
