Key investment points:
Shanghai Stock Index
From the technical conditions of the daily, weekly and monthly lines of the Shanghai stock index, they have weakened to varying degrees, and there is no obvious improvement at present. The Shanghai stock index rebounded in the first half of last week and fell back in the second half of last week. The daily line fell below the important support level of 250 day moving average again. As a long-term moving average, the 250 day moving average shows signs of turning downward, and the moving average is still weakening. However, the index has fallen from the top of the band for 29 trading days, down more than 180 points. A sustained decline may trigger a counter offensive by long forces. The long force generally defends and counterattacks at some important technical support positions, and the index is not far from the off track support position of the early decline channel, so the performance of long and short forces can be observed near this support position this week. Although the rise and fall of the daily line changed rapidly, the weekly K-line of Shanghai Stock Exchange failed to rebound last week, the 30 week moving average and 60 week moving average fell again, the weekly K-line of the index was left with a long shadow line, and the weakness of the weekly index was not significantly repaired. At present, the monthly index line is a negative K line, which is currently below the dual support of the may average and the October average. The may average has turned downward, and the monthly average has also weakened. If the weakness of long-term indicators cannot be repaired quickly, even if there is a rebound in short-term indicators, the kinetic energy may be limited. Once the weakness of long-term indicators is established, the Shanghai stock index may have a longer and greater shock adjustment demand relative to the daily line.
Shenzhen Component Index
The Shenzhen composite index rebounded in the first half of the week and fell in the second half of the week. The daily line once again came near the off track support of the previous downward trend line. The index daily moving average system has tended downward, and there is no obvious sign of stabilization at present. However, the index has fallen by more than 8% since its high point in the band, which lasted 29 trading days. The index may have rebound demand near the off track support of the early decline channel. But at present, the daily indicators have not been significantly better and have not sent a rebound signal. The long and short struggle is still or continues, and whether many parties can win in the short term is still the focus of observation this week. From the perspective of weekly line, the Shenzhen composite index is in the shape of head, shoulder and top for the second consecutive week, and the neck line is broken. At present, the 5-week moving average is dead cross, and the 10 week moving average is heading down. It has fallen in volume for three consecutive weeks. Weekly KDJ and MACD are dead cross, weekly indicators are weak, and there is no obvious sign of stabilization in the weekly decline adjustment. Even if the weekly line has broken rebound demand, and the upper moving average and neckline constitute backpressure, the rebound or kinetic energy is limited.
Gem index
The gem index has stepped out of the decline channel since the band high. At present, the decline adjustment has been 38 trading days, and the maximum decline has exceeded 14%. At present, the daily technical indicators have eased slightly, but no obvious rebound signal has been formed. The short-term is still a process of long and short repeated wrestling. We need to observe whether multiple forces can win in the shock. However, even if the long power can win in the shock and rebound, the daily moving average system that has a downward trend is difficult to completely repair in the short term. The upper 60 week moving average and the upper 30 week moving average may constitute backpressure.
CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 300 index
CSI 500: the CSI 500 index fluctuated and fell for 14 trading days after the band high. The daily medium and short-term moving average has tended downward, and the daily moving average has weakened. However, recently, the index fell and closed negative for three consecutive trading days, and was close to the off track support of the early decline channel. The volume can show signs of shrinking, and the selling may be reduced. The index has fallen for days, which may arouse the rebound demand of long power. However, the daily indicators have not been significantly repaired, and there is no obvious signal of rebound, which is still the focus of observation this week. The weekly index closed below the 30 week moving average for the second consecutive week. And the K-line closed negative for three consecutive weeks, and there may be rebound demand in the short term. But even if the index rebounds, it is difficult to repair the weakened weekly index system in the short term. If the index falls down, the early high formed in July 2020 may provide short-term support. The lower 60 week moving average also constitutes strong support. CSI 1000: the short-term average of CSI 1000 index is short, with a downward trend, and there is no obvious sign of improvement in daily indicators. However, the index has fallen rapidly in recent days and has come near the off track support of the early decline channel, which may arouse the rebound demand of long forces. However, there is no obvious rebound signal, so we still need to observe carefully in the shock this week. But even if the index rebounds, it may not be able to improve the downward short-term trend in the short term. The weekly average of the index has weakened, the weekly KDJ and weekly MACD have dead fork resonance, and both deviate from the dead fork, and the weekly index has weakened significantly. Even if the index rebounds, the upper 30 week moving average, the head down 5-week moving average and 10 week moving average may constitute backpressure.
CSI 300: since the recent wave band high, the daily line of CSI 300 index has fallen for more than 29 trading days, and the maximum decline has exceeded 8%. The medium and long-term moving average of the daily line has tended downward. However, in the shock and fall of the market last week, the index was significantly stronger than the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes, showing a certain resistance to decline. There are multiple support levels below the index, which may provide short-term rebound support. Its daily indicators show signs of easing. In the vicinity of the support level, you can closely observe the comparison of long and short forces of the index, the changes of volume and price indicators, and observe whether the index can have short-term rebound kinetic energy. However, the weekly medium and short-term moving average of the index is downward, and there is no obvious sign of repair at present. When the long-term technical conditions are not significantly better, even if there is a rebound in the short-term cycle, it is necessary to be cautious.
