Macro Daily: on the eve of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, market risk aversion warmed up

Macro important news and events:

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that the UK economy ranked first in the G7 for the second consecutive year and lowered the US economic growth forecast for 2022 from 5.2% to 4%. In addition, IMF chief economist gopinat pointed out that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may further increase the energy costs of many countries.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the United States is considering implementing "strong" export controls on Russia, which will seriously hit Russia's strategic ambition of economic industrialization and damage its important areas. Biden said it was also possible to sanction Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Lian en, chief economist of the European Central Bank, believes that inflation will remain high in early 2022, but will then decline, especially near the end of the year. At present, it is expected that the inflation rate in 2023 and 2024 will be lower than the target of 2%. He said the ECB would end net asset purchases before raising interest rates.

Li Keqiang said that at present, China's economy is facing new downward pressure. We should adhere to the principle of stability and strive for progress while maintaining stability, strengthen macro policies around the "six stabilities" and "six guarantees", put stable growth in a more prominent position, insist on not engaging in "flood irrigation", and pay attention to interval regulation and targeted regulation.

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