Looking back on Wednesday's A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened high across the board. At the beginning of the session, the stock index inertia rose, and then rose and fell. Due to the weak upward attack, the stock index plunged further in the afternoon. However, the securities sector made efforts to protect the market, led the index to reverse, and after a strong turn red, the stock index rose again, with a panoramic view of the rebound pattern.
As mentioned in Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , the "entanglement" between short-term hedging demand and medium-term policies still exists between now and the Spring Festival, and the probability of market shock stabilizing is high. From the end of festival to the window period of the two sessions, the repression of short-term hedging is lifted, the strength of medium and long-term policies is expected to increase, and A-Shares are expected to rebound in stages after "squatting", That is, enter the first half of the second stage within the range from the end of the policy to the end of the valuation (increased policy efforts and market repair) .
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities pointed out that the market fell on Wednesday to the annual low in July last year, with a V-shaped rebound and a long shadow line. There was a general rebound in the individual stock sector, with panic rising and falling, funds going north into net inflow. It is expected that the market is expected to gradually shake, consolidate and stabilize the rebound. Pay attention to the rotation rhythm of the sector and the change of volume energy . In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, food and beverage, household appliances, electrical equipment, TMT and other industries.
In terms of the future market, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) believes that because today is the last day before the festival, there may be some pressure in the session. You should still be cautious when participating. Try to use the bottom of individual stocks to do t, and don't blindly chase up the short-term hot spot . When the index rebounds, you can pay attention to the pressure near 3480. If you are short or light position investors, you can feel at ease for the new year and pay attention after the festival.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that the short-term market may be dominated by shock consolidation after rapid downward exploration. If the rise is accompanied by effective amplification of trading volume, it can be regarded as a long signal. Technically, it is waiting for KDJ oversold gold fork. In terms of time, policy inflection point is from February to March. After the Spring Festival, there will be a time window for the national two sessions, and positions will be properly controlled, In the medium term, we will pay attention to whether big finance can drive the market out of the "spring agitation" market, and pay attention to the bargain hunting layout opportunities of blue chip stocks in the annual report .
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) said that remained relatively optimistic about the market after the Spring Festival . The recent continuous correction of the market is not due to the deterioration of China's fundamentals, but more due to the impact of the external market and short-term market sentiment fluctuations. The Fed's interest rate increase plan is about to be implemented, and the probability of the full outbreak of geopolitical risks is also low. The continuation of China's countercyclical and cross cyclical regulation is expected to maintain a reasonable margin of market liquidity, and the disturbance of the epidemic is gradually receding, The market is expected to usher in a counterattack opportunity.
To take a step back, the current domestic and foreign environment is relatively complex, and the market is still accompanied by some uncertainty, but the recent sharp decline in medicine, biology, national defense and military industry has built a safety margin . It is suggested to bargain hunting before the festival to lay out the large blue chip targets in the undervalued sectors such as finance, military industry and traditional Chinese medicine, and pay attention to the differentiation in the high boom track stocks.
Macroscopically, Ping An Securities pointed out that the first interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve in 2022 fully set the tone for the start of this round of tightening cycle. "Mountain rain is coming", and this round of "fed impact" should not be underestimated: under unprecedented inflationary pressure, the Fed's "gentle" or no longer: raising interest rates by 50bp at a time and shrinking the table sharply at the same time are all possible policy options; In the past, the Fed's trade-off on employment and "care" for the adjustment of US stocks may no longer be. at a time when the Fed's route of raising interest rates and shrinking the table is still unclear, it is necessary to continue to be vigilant against the volatility of the US financial market and its spillover effect on the global market .
In terms of operational strategy, YueKai securities mentioned that investors should "look at the quantity of scenery" . under the theme of "focus on me", steady growth is still the focus of the recent market . Whether it is broad money or credit, the policy underpinning economy is worth looking forward to. For the future market, the pre festival market pursues certainty, the performance of blue chip in the large market is better than that of small and medium-sized markets, the policy expectation after the festival rises again, and the market turns to pursue high elasticity. It is expected that steady growth in the first quarter is still the main market, and it is expected to take the lead in opening a wave of market dominated by large cap stocks.
In terms of allocation ideas, first, pay attention to the performance of large cap stocks in the near future. There is a strong demand for phased reverse switching in large cap stocks. focus on the main line of steady growth and undervalued value, real estate, building materials and household appliances in the infrastructure and real estate chain, as well as leisure services, food and beverage and other consumer industries to expand domestic demand .
Second, pay attention to the performance of small and medium-sized markets throughout the year. This year's marginal change at the denominator end has supported the trend of small and medium-sized stocks. In the stage of steady growth, we pay attention to the investment direction dominated by expected improvement and relative profit growth, energy transformation, high-end manufacturing, digital economy and other directions supported by high-quality transformation and development .
Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) said that mining the "three low" blue chip investment opportunities of low, low and undervalued value will be the place where institutional funds find the few investment "gold mines" in the first half of the bull market . From the opening characteristics and technical characteristics, the market is close to the low point at the bottom. In order to make both index and money in the future, the "three low" will be the investment object, Both offensive and defensive α Strategy is also available β Investment direction of space. In terms of operation, take the road of "moderation", pay attention to finance, state-owned enterprise reform concept stocks, information technology, smart cars, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, film and television media and "three low" bottom stocks, and avoid "three high" stocks and delisting risk stocks.
