Social rental housing market
1. Overall situation of annual social rental housing market
From the listing situation of the city’s social rental housing market in 2021, the high monthly listing volume appeared in April, with a total of more than 34000 units. In the middle of the year, the listing volume of social rental houses in the city continued to hover at a low level, and the listing volume from June to September was below 25000 sets. In the fourth quarter, the listing volume showed an upward trend, and the listing volume in November and December was close to the level of 30000 sets at the beginning of the year. Overall, the average monthly listing volume of social rental housing in 2021 is about 27000 units, which is about 30% lower than that in 2020. From the perspective of the average rent price of listed houses, it showed a slight upward trend month by month throughout the year. The average rent price of listed houses in January was 8469 yuan / month, the lowest in the year. 11. The average listing price in December has approached the level of 9900 yuan / month and reached the highest level in the year. So far, the average rental price of listing at the end of the year has increased by about 16% compared with that at the beginning of the year.
From the transaction situation of social rental housing, the highest point of the year appeared in April, and the rental demand increased significantly after the Spring Festival, which is also related to the large-scale supply of rental listing in the current month. The total number of rental transactions in the current month was about 17000. The rental turnover fluctuated greatly in each month of the year. In addition to the rent change demand generated after the Spring Festival, the rental demand brought by the graduation season of colleges and universities entered the market relay, which is reflected in that the turnover in May and June continued to be at a relatively high level in the year, and the total volume reached about 10000 sets. In the fourth quarter, the city’s rental demand tended to weaken. Although the listing supply volume turned up, the trading volume showed a downward trend month by month. The total turnover in December was only about 4700 units, the second lowest level in the year. In 2021, the average monthly turnover of social housing leasing in the city was about 8816 units, down about 36% from the monthly average in 2020.
From the perspective of average transaction price, although the trend of each month fluctuates, it shows an upward trend as a whole. The average transaction price of leasing in the whole year is about 8753 yuan / month, an increase of about 8.42% compared with 2020.
From the situation of the hot sectors of social rental housing in the year, the top ten sectors in terms of rental listing are basically the same as those in 2020, of which only the Pudong World Expo and the main urban area of Jiading are the new ones. Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development Co.Ltd(600663) the riverside sector still ranks first with obvious advantages. The number of listed units decreased by about 30% year-on-year in 2020, and the average price of listed rent increased by about 14.6% year-on-year. As a traditional second-hand housing trading area, the rental listing supply of Jinqiao sector rose three places to the second place. The number of listed units decreased by about 15% year-on-year, which was significantly lower than the average level of the city, and the average price of listed rent increased by about 13.6% year-on-year. In addition, the ranking of the listing volume of several mature residential sectors in the periphery of the main urban areas of gumeiluoyang, Zhoukang and Jiading shows an upward trend, with a year-on-year decline of about 20% in 2020, which is also lower than the level of the whole city. This is mainly due to the fact that after years of development of the new housing market in the periphery, the number of secondary new houses available for leasing in the stock market is rising year by year.
Judging from the ranking of leasing transaction sectors, the top ten sectors are completely consistent with the listing situation, with only a slight difference in order. Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development Co.Ltd(600663) the leasing transaction volume of Binjiang sector continues to rank first, with a year-on-year decrease of about 38% in 2020, which is equivalent to the average level of the whole city. The average rent price increases by about 15% year-on-year, about 7 percentage points higher than the average level of the whole city. As a city center sector with rich social rental housing types, with its superior location conditions, Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development Co.Ltd(600663) can attract tenants in different circles. The volume of rental demand is very large, and the rent level has been improved accordingly. Pudong World Expo is the fastest rising sector in terms of rental transactions. The trading volume decreased by about 35% year-on-year, slightly less than the average level of the city, and the average rent price increased by about 10%, slightly 1.5 percentage points higher than that of the city. There are many rail transit lines distributed in the sector, with multiple stations, and superior public transport conditions. In addition, the private education resources in the sector are relatively rich. At the same time, with the opening of taikooli, the supporting energy level of the comprehensive commercial body in the sector has been further improved. It can be seen that the quite good living experience ensures a certain rental demand.
2. Annual residential rental market segments
From the situation of the rental housing market segment, we can further understand the rental supply and demand structure in the current market. In 2021, the building age distribution of the houses listed in the city’s social leasing was relatively average. Among them, the proportion of houses from 2001 to 2005 was still the largest, reaching 20%, which was about 2 percentage points lower than that in 2020. The proportion of houses with older ages before 1995 was about 4 percentage points lower than that in 2020. The listing proportion of new apartments after 2011 increased by about 7 percentage points year-on-year.
Looking at the leasing transactions, the overall trend is the same as the proportion of listed supply. The proportion of housing transactions completed before 2005 has shrunk to varying degrees compared with that in 2020, with an overall reduction of 8 percentage points. Compared with 2020, the proportion of lease transactions of houses with relatively new age after 2015 has increased by 8 percentage points. It can be seen that in 2021, among the social rental houses in the city, the apartments with relatively new age are on the rise, and the expansion of medium and high-end rental demand has also directly driven the rise of rental listing and average transaction price.
