Key investment points
Weekly resumption: the rise and fall of this week ranked third. SW passenger car PE / Pb was in the historical quantile of 93% / 92%. SW car rose 4.4%, outperforming the market by 1.8pct. SW passenger cars, SW auto parts, SW commercial trucks, SW commercial buses and SW automobile services are all on the rise. Among the 28 industries in Shenwan level, the automobile sector ranked third this week, ranking at the top. In terms of valuation, since 2011, the PE / Pb of SW passenger cars have been in the historical 93% / 92% quantile respectively, with the quantile of + 3PCT / + 5pct compared with last week; Last week’s quantile of + 2pc / + 3pc / + 3pc / + 3pc respectively. In horizontal comparison, the valuation of passenger cars is higher than that of white appliances and lower than that of Baijiu in PE and lower than that of white appliances and Baijiu in Pb; The valuation of auto parts sector is lower than that of computer and higher than that of media in terms of PE and Pb. (this week specifically refers to 202205.14 ~ 202205.21, the same as the following text. If the year is not indicated before the month / quarter in the text, it is the current year of 2022 by default)
Boom tracking: the cumulative daily average wholesale / retail chain ratio in the first two weeks of May was + 29% / + 27% respectively. From May 9 to 15, the average daily retail sales volume of passenger cars was 32811, with a year-on-year increase of – 22% and a month on month increase of + 26%; In the first two weeks of May, the cumulative average daily retail sales of passenger cars was 32250, with a year-on-year increase of – 21% and a month on month increase of + 27%; From May 9 to 15, the average daily wholesale sales volume was 33748, with a year-on-year increase of – 29% and a month on month increase of + 47%; In the first two weeks of May, the cumulative average daily wholesale sales volume of passenger cars was 30524, with a year-on-year increase of – 24% and a month on month increase of + 29%. The output of narrow passenger cars in April was 969000, with a year-on-year increase of – 41.1% and a month on month increase of – 46.8%; Retail sales volume was 1.042 million units, with a year-on-year increase of – 35.5% and a month on month increase of – 34.0%; The wholesale sales volume was 946000, with a year-on-year increase of – 43.0% and a month on month increase of – 47.8%. Inventory: in April, the overall enterprise inventory of the passenger car industry was + 23000, and the channel inventory was – 115000.
Key focus: the price of raw materials decreased slightly. The price of raw materials decreased slightly. According to our self built passenger car raw material price index model, weighted by the five raw material price indexes of glass, aluminum, plastic, natural rubber and steel, the overall raw material price index of passenger cars this week (05.16-05.20) was – 0.24% month on month (05.09-05.13), and the price indexes of glass, aluminum, plastic, natural rubber and steel were + 0.09% / + 2.30% / – 0.42% / + 2.72% / – 0.63% month on month (05.16-05.20).
Investment suggestion: firmly optimistic about the investment opportunities of the automobile sector, and it is recommended to over match! In April, the production and sales were year-on-year or the worst. The resumption of work and production was carried out in an orderly manner to promote the increase of supply, or some stimulus policies were issued to accelerate the recovery of demand! Based on the comprehensive fundamentals + valuation, the auto sector is already in an undervalued position. Three main lines are configured: 1) Tesla industrial chain ( Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) / Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) etc.); 2) Independent brands with upward new car cycle are preferred ( Byd Company Limited(002594) + Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) + ideal car + Xiaopeng car), followed by ( Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) + Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) + Geely car + Weilai + Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) etc.); 3) Intelligent industrial chain ( Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) + Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) + Foryou Corporation(002906) + Jingwei Hengrun + Juguang technology, etc.); 4) Other high-quality parts ( Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) + Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) + Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) + China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) ), etc.
Risk tip: the impact of chip shortage exceeded expectations, and the epidemic control was lower than expected.
