CPI rose year-on-year in 21 years, while pig prices fluctuated downward. China's CPI in 21 years was + 0.9% year-on-year, including + 1.5% year-on-year in December, including - 1.2% year-on-year in food items and - 36.7% year-on-year in pork. CPI - 0.3% month on month; During this period, pork prices were in a volatile downward trend, affecting CPI pork by + 0.4% month on month. In December, China's Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) imports amounted to US $19.937 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 15.49%, exports amounted to US $8.895 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 17.7%, and trade deficit was US $11.043 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 13.78%.
In January, the pig price fluctuated downward, and the monthly level may reproduce the loss. For the opportunity of the agricultural industry in 22 years, we firmly recommend the pig cycle. The core view is that in the bottom stage of the pig cycle, the deep loss period is the best time to layout breeding stocks. From the perspective of expectation, there will be no worse expectation. The risk of breeding stocks has been released in large quantities, and the safety margin is very high. With the decline of the number of fertile sows and the decline of pig prices again, the production capacity continues to clear, which is good for the industry to meet the dawn. Based on our judgment of the second bottom of 22q2-3, 22q1 is expected to be the second best time point for the layout of breeding stocks. On January 21, the average price of pigs in 22 provinces and cities across the country was 24.36 yuan / kg, down from - 0.83% last week. From the supply side, the production capacity continued to be cleared. At the end of December 21, the number of fertile sows was 43.29 million, a month on month increase of + 0.77% and a year-on-year increase of + 4.4%. From the demand side, consumption will gradually enter the off-season. From the perspective of feed, the national pig feed output in November was 11.41 million tons, a slight rebound of + 4.6% month on month, indicating an increase in the short-term supply side. Recently, the epidemic situation has increased in some areas, and the proportion of pigs below 90kg has increased significantly. On the whole, we believe that the pig price continued to decline in February, and it is recommended to continue to track the demand side changes and the occurrence of the epidemic.
According to xinmu.com, on January 20, the national average price of yellow chicken was 7.37 yuan / kg, with a month on month ratio of - 1.04%. At present, it is in the stage of high shock. Based on the analysis of the stock of Huangji's grandparents, parents and prices, we believe that the current stock of parents is close to the 18-year average and is in the process of accelerating clearing, and it is expected that the current production capacity of 22h2 will be at an inflection point. At the level of breeding cost, the prices of raw materials such as corn and soybean meal are high. It is expected that the high cost end will be stable in 22 years. The price recovery will be brought about by the superposition of the decline of production capacity, and the performance of breeding enterprises can be improved.
Since the beginning of the year, the performance of the sector is weaker than that of the CSI 300, and the fishery performance is better. From the beginning of the year to January 21, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector was - 3.78%, and the CSI 300 fell 3.64%. Among the sub industries, planting industry decreased the most (- 7.87%), followed by livestock and poultry breeding (- 7.4%); Fishery rose at the forefront (9.63%).
It is suggested that the second best time for the layout of breeding stocks is expected to be 22q1, focusing on Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) . The price of yellow chicken is rising, and pay attention to the leader Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) . Policies related to genetically modified seeds were accelerated, and attention was paid to Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) . The concentration of feed industry has increased, and the leading enterprises have the advantages of supply chain. They pay attention to Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) .
Risk tips: the risk of pig price falling short of expectations, epidemic risk, raw material price fluctuation risk, etc.
