Event: on January 24, 2022, the State Council issued the comprehensive work plan for energy conservation and emission reduction in the 14th five year plan, hereinafter referred to as the “plan”.
Based on the national conditions dominated by coal, insist on establishing first and then breaking down. Strictly and reasonably control the growth of coal consumption, pay close attention to the clean and efficient utilization of coal, promote the “three transformation linkage” of coal saving and consumption reduction transformation, heating transformation and flexibility transformation of existing coal-fired power units, and continue to promote the transformation of ultra-low emission of coal-fired power units. First of all, it emphasizes once again “focusing on coal”. Secondly, in terms of controlling coal consumption, the plan puts forward “strictly and reasonably controlling the growth of coal consumption”, which is different from “controlling coal consumption”. For coal consumption, it is not total amount control, but growth rate control; The plan’s attitude towards coal consumption is better than the previously pessimistic market expectation. In addition, the plan emphasizes that the focus of coal control is on the use mode, that is, to pay attention to clean and efficient utilization. The energy-saving transformation of coal-fired power units is not only flexible transformation, but also consumption reduction transformation and heating transformation at the same time, emphasizing “three transformation linkage”.
Promote the cogeneration transformation of large coal-fired power plants, fully tap the heating potential, and promote the elimination of coal-fired boilers and loose coal within the coverage of heating pipe networks. The plan promotes the cogeneration transformation of large coal-fired units and fully exploits the heating potential, which means that the traditional thermal power plants have increased the new task of heating, and the corresponding demand for coal is expected to increase.
Optimize and improve the dual control system of energy consumption and improve the way to determine the total energy consumption index. All provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) determine the annual total energy consumption target according to the regional GDP growth target and the basic target of reducing energy consumption intensity. Regions with economic growth exceeding the expected target can adjust the total energy consumption target accordingly. For areas where the energy consumption intensity is reduced and reaches the incentive target issued by the state, the total energy consumption is exempted from the assessment in the current dual control assessment of energy consumption. The energy consumption of raw materials is not included in the dual control assessment of national and local energy consumption. The total energy consumption has been liberalized in three ways in the plan. 1) in areas where the economic growth rate exceeds the expected target, the total energy consumption target can be increased accordingly, which will make the total energy consumption control no longer a factor restricting the economy. 2) Areas where the energy consumption intensity is lower than the incentive standard issued by the state are exempted from the assessment of dual control of energy consumption. 3) The energy consumption of raw materials is not included in the national and local dual control assessment. In the downstream of the coal industry, the raw material energy consumption of the coal chemical industry and building materials industry accounts for a relatively high proportion. In the future, this part of the energy consumption restriction will also be liberalized, which also means that the demand of the coal industry is gradually weakened under the influence of “dual control of energy consumption”.
Investment suggestion: To sum up, the plan liberalizes the control of total energy consumption and weakens the downstream demand control of the coal industry, which will be good for the industry. We suggest paying attention to Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) .
Risk tip: the risk of economic slowdown; Risk of sharp decline in coal prices; Risk of policy change.
