The Ministry of culture and tourism released China's tourism data in 2021: on January 25, 2022, the Finance Department of the Ministry of culture and tourism released China's tourism data in 2021. In 2021, the total number of tourist trips in China was about 3.246 billion, an increase of 12.75% year-on-year, recovering to 54.05% in the same period in 2019. Among them, the number of trips of urban residents was about 2.342 billion / yoy + 13.41%, recovering to 52.38% in the same period in 2019; Rural residents travel about 904 million person times / yoy + 11.06%, recovering to 58.89% in the same period in 2019.
Tourism revenue recovered to 51.00% before the epidemic, slightly lower than the repair process of tourists. Among them, the tourism consumption of urban residents is 2.36 trillion yuan / yoy + 31.6%; Rural residents' tourism consumption is 0.55 trillion yuan / yoy + 28.4%. China's tourism revenue (total tourism consumption) is about 2.92 trillion yuan / yoy + 31.02%, recovering to 51.00% in 2019, an increase of 0.69 trillion yuan over the same period last year. Among them, the tourism consumption of urban residents reached 2.36 trillion yuan / yoy + 31.60%, recovering to 49.67% in the same period in 2019; The tourism consumption of rural residents was 0.55 trillion yuan / yoy + 28.40%, recovering to 56.46% in the same period in 2019.
The annual per capita consumption recovered to exceed 90% of that before the epidemic, and the per capita consumption in Q4 reached a new high after the epidemic. In 2021, the annual per capita tourism consumption was about 899.28 yuan / yoy + 16.17%, an increase of 125.14 yuan over the same period in 2020 and restored to 94.33% in the same period in 2019. Among them, the per capita tourism consumption of urban residents is 1009.57 yuan / yoy + 16.00%, returning to 95.01% in the same period in 2019; The per capita tourism consumption of rural residents is 613.56 yuan / yoy + 15.66%, recovering to 96.67% in the same period in 2019.
Investment suggestions: effective epidemic prevention system + full deployment of vaccines + approval and landing of specific drugs + promotion of oral drug research and development can effectively boost consumers' travel expectations. In the future, the demand side and performance side of offline consumption formats such as wine, tourism and catering are expected to achieve high elastic recovery. We suggest focusing on four main lines of recovery logic:
\u3000\u30001). Recommend Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) high-quality targets of hotels at the bottom of the cycle / with stable long-term growth logic, and pay attention to Huazhu group;
\u3000\u30002). Benefiting from the increased penetration of leisure tourism and peripheral tourism, China's leisure scenic spots and theme parks, such as the eternal scene area under Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) and Atlantis under Fosun tourism, may usher in a structural development period in the future. In addition, due to the increased popularity of ice and snow tourism brought by the Winter Olympic Games, Relevant snow and Ice Tourism targets in Northeast China may benefit in the future. Recommend Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) for high-quality scenic spots, and pay attention to China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) with complete tourism industry chain business and Fosun tourism culture through Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) tourism business;
\u3000\u30003). It is suggested to pay attention to Haidilao, Xiabu and Xiabu, the leading catering enterprises that are expected to be repaired in the same store after the epidemic, and jiumaojiu, a new brand & a new business type that is hatching;
\u3000\u30004). The China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) with prominent leading barriers are recommended for the tax-free sector benefiting from consumption return and consumption upgrading and the human services sector with obvious anti cyclical attributes.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation repeatedly exceeds the expected risk; Macroeconomic fluctuation risk; The construction process of the new project is less than the expected risk; The risk that consumer recognition is less than expected; Consumer health and safety risks, etc.
