Pig breeding
The market has memory, and the growth superposition cycle is the preference of the market. The valuation focus of "small and beautiful" pig enterprises will gradually rise with significant marketing growth. The two mutually verified historical laws of "46-49 months per round of pig cycle" and "the low point in the cycle occurs in the second quarter" may be broken. The performance of pig price in the second quarter determines whether the starting point of the new cycle is 2022q2 or 2023q2, and the starting point determines the layout. The strong are always strong. It is suggested to pay attention to Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , COFCO Jiakang, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) .
Poultry breeding
Huangji: in 2021, the industry continued its losses in 2020, and the bottom of the industry was completed. According to the feedback of industrial research, compared with previous years, the proportion of fixed price contracts signed by enterprises in 2022 decreased by 10% to 20%, mainly due to the fact that the industry has suffered losses for two consecutive years and the great capital pressure of enterprises, and some enterprises have adopted the strategy of reducing production and ensuring strength. At the same time, from the sales data of meat and poultry feed, on the premise of maintaining the growth of 10% + of white feather broilers, the decline of feed sales is small, indicating that the production capacity of yellow feather broilers has been reduced or exceeded expectations. From the data of various parties, we can confirm that the capacity end has been significantly deconstructed, and the bottom of product price has been warmed up with strong certainty. The leading advantage is obvious, focusing on the rapidly expanding industry leader in East China.
Baiji: the data of Listed Companies in the current industry can confirm the changes in the industry. We use the construction in progress to represent the supply of enterprises and the revenue to represent the corresponding customer demand. At present, the growth rate of the overall revenue of enterprises slows down, while the construction in progress (capital expenditure) has increased significantly. The industry is in the stage of integration and reshuffle. In the reshuffle stage, the leading advantage is gradually highlighted, The medium and long-term development opportunities of the leaders of the whole industry chain are determined. It is suggested to pay attention to the white feather broiler leader Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) with the expansion of production capacity and the continuous development of downstream brands. At the same time, focus on Shandong Yisheng Livestock & Poultry Breeding Co.Ltd(002458) , Shandong Minhe Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(002234) , which first benefited from the industry reversal and have great flexibility.
Conclusion: the capacity of yellow feather chicken breeding industry has been significantly reduced. The pig breeding industry has entered the bottom stage of capacity reduction, and the bottom recovery is expected to be stronger and stronger. As the core track of the agricultural sector, the breeding sector will turn around. In addition to focusing on individual stocks, passive products such as Wells Fargo CSI agricultural theme ETF tracking index can provide configuration options.
Risk tip: the recovery of downstream consumption is less than expected; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The implementation of agricultural policies did not meet expectations.
