Industry core view:
Last week (January 17-january 21, 2022), the Shenwan mechanical equipment industry index rose by - 2.5%, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.1%, and the machinery industry lost 3.6pct compared with the CSI 300 index. Ten of Shenwan's 31 primary industries rose, and the mechanical equipment industry ranked 18th, with the overall performance in the middle reaches.
Photovoltaic equipment: the installed capacity of photovoltaic equipment increased by 53gw in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of + 10%. Pay attention to the progress of heterojunction and TOPCON projects. According to the national energy administration, in 2021, China's photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 53.0gw, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%, including centralized 24.0gw and distributed 29.0gw, accounting for 54.7%. Under the guidance of the policy of "promoting the whole county", distributed photovoltaic, especially household photovoltaic, continues to maintain rapid development. The installed capacity of household photovoltaic in December is 5.1gw. In 2021, it has been included in the scale of national financial subsidies in 2021. The installed capacity of household photovoltaic projects is 21.5gw. This year's n-type industrialization has accelerated: 1) recently, n-type battery projects have been intensively put into operation, and Jingke 8gwtopcon has been put into operation, with an average mass production efficiency of 24.5%; Jiangsu Akcome Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002610) 8GW heterojunction battery and its supporting projects are located in Rui'an, Zhejiang Province. 2) Maiwei heterojunction equipment stationed Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) . 3) Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) hjtpecvd has been verified in Jinneng technology. At present, the average efficiency of battery chips is 24.38%, and the average efficiency of the optimal batch is 24.55%. This year, the replacement of p-type battery by n-type battery is accelerated, and the mass production efficiency of TOPCON and hjt is continuously improved. It is suggested to pay attention to the equipment demand brought by technical iteration.
Lithium battery equipment: the production and sales of electric vehicles reached a new high in December, and attention was paid to the valuation and repair of lithium battery equipment company. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in 2021 were 3.545 million and 3.521 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times, and the market penetration reached 13.4%. In December 2021, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles reached 518000 and 531000 respectively, a record high, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2 times and 1.1 times respectively, and the market penetration of new energy vehicles was 19.1%. With the high downstream demand, power battery manufacturers have actively expanded their production, and the production and sales of power batteries have achieved high growth: in 2021, the output of power batteries was 219.7gwh, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 170.1%; China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) the installed capacity of battery is 154.5gwh, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 142.8%. According to the statistics of OFweek lithium power grid, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , China Innovation airlines, honeycomb energy, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) the production capacity planning by 2025 will be 670, 600, 500, 600 and 300gwh respectively. The accelerated expansion of battery enterprises will bring sufficient orders to lithium equipment manufacturers this year and next. Recently, the lithium battery equipment sector has a large correction, so it is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities brought by the valuation and repair of the sector.
Construction machinery: in December, the decline of excavator sales narrowed, and the demand for construction machinery recovered in the first quarter with steady growth. According to the data of excavator sales in December, the decline of construction machinery sales narrowed: 24038 excavators of all kinds were sold in December 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 23.8%; Among them, 15423 units in China, down 43.5% year-on-year; 8615 sets were exported, a year-on-year increase of 104.6%. According to the statistics of Securities Daily, the total investment of major projects started in December last year reached 2.28 trillion yuan, and the capital construction force is required by steady growth. At present, the valuation of construction machinery sector is low in the mechanical equipment industry. It is suggested to pay attention to the valuation and repair of construction machinery under the demand of steady growth.
Industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) : "the fourteenth five year plan" Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industrial plan will increase the manufacturing Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) density by 100% in 2025. According to the "14th five year plan" Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industrial development plan, the average annual growth rate of Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industrial operating revenue exceeded 20%, and the Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) density of manufacturing industry doubled. We are optimistic about the localization of industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) . Under the logic of policy support and machine replacement brought by the aging population, China's industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) may usher in rapid development during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
Risk factors: the investment in fixed assets is less than expected, the industrialization of heterojunction is less than expected, the issuance of special bonds is less than expected, and the industry competition intensifies the risk.
