In the fourth quarter, the proportion of heavy positions in bank stocks fell by 0.27 percentage points to 1.70% month on month compared with the third quarter. More attention was paid to the allocation and cost performance of individual stocks, and the attention to high-quality regional banks was increased, Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) obtained the most significant additional allocation.
Reiterate their views and be optimistic about the bank market. In January, the bank’s performance express catalyzed the market, and actively implemented policies one after another. We believe that there is still room and impetus for the steady growth and real estate policies. If the economic data are still weak and the implementation effectiveness of credit and other relevant measures is insufficient, the policies may continue to work to ensure the steady growth and real estate take effect until the economic and real estate data and expectations improve.
In terms of individual stocks, it is recommended to pay attention to regional banks with rapid performance growth, such as Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , and continuous recommendation of core targets: Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) .
The proportion of heavy positions of banks continued to fall month on month, and the performance express catalyzed the market in January
As of January 25, 2022, the quarterly report of A-share fund 4 has been released and counted. According to our statistics, at the end of the fourth quarter, the proportion of the total market value of listed bank shares in the total market value of the fund continued to fall by 0.27 percentage points to 1.70% compared with the end of the third quarter. We believe that the reasons for the decline in the proportion of heavy positions of banks in the fourth quarter include: 1) the fermentation of market concerns about the risk of the real estate market; 2) The economic data in the fourth quarter was weak, and the financing demand of enterprises did not improve; Moreover, under the downward pressure of the economy, the market expectation of interest rate reduction is gradually rising; 3) In the fourth quarter, the fund confirmed its income, reduced its holdings of stocks related to the new energy industry chain with good performance in 2021, and increased the allocation of high-end technology manufacturing and infrastructure industry chain.
Since January, the bank performance express has been released one after another to catalyze the bank market. At the same time, the market style switching and the adjustment of overvalued sectors have continued. In January (as of January 24), the banking sector rose 6.05%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 9.16 percentage points. Combined with the recent positive signals of the central bank’s interest rate and reserve requirement reduction and regulatory release, we believe that “stabilizing the economy” in 2022 is still the main line, which is conducive to the current stable bank credit demand and asset quality. At present, the proportion of heavy positions in the sector is still significantly lower than the standard configuration level, and we continue to be optimistic about the sector market.
Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) the proportion of heavy positions has increased significantly, and the adjustment range of heavy positions is large
From the absolute level of heavy positions, the top five banks with positions at the end of the fourth quarter were China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , accounting for 0.65%, 0.45%, 0.18%, 0.10% and 0.07% respectively. From the perspective of quarterly change trend, among the heavy position stocks, Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) obtained the most significant increase in shareholding ratio, which increased 8bp to 0.45% compared with the third quarter. We believe that on the one hand, it is due to the market’s recognition of Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) management, asset allocation and operating ability; On the other hand, the characteristics of overvalued value and the stock allotment event have a short-term impact on Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) stock price in the second to third quarters, but also provide investors with a better buying time window. From the increase of other stocks, Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) , Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Agricultural Bank Of China Limited(601288) heavy positions increased by 2bp, 1bp, 1bp to 0.04%, 0.06%, 0.02% and 0.02% respectively compared with the end of the third quarter. It generally reflects that the market paid more attention to the allocation and cost performance of individual stocks in the fourth quarter, and paid more attention to high-quality regional banks. The banks with a large reduction in allocation in the fourth quarter were mainly China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , which decreased by 16bp, 9bp and 6BP to 0.65%, 0.10% and 0.18% month on month compared with the third quarter. The above-mentioned stocks are banks with the highest absolute proportion of heavy positions, and the reduction is also affected by the market’s concern about the credit risk of real estate enterprises.
Risk tips:
Large scale outbreak of real estate default risk; The economy fell sharply, exceeding expectations.
