Key investment points:
The performance fundamentals and profitability of listed securities companies continue to improve, but the valuation is still at a historical low. As of January 25, 2022, the current valuation of securities firm II (CITIC) PE is 17.21 times, which is at the quantile level of 11.11% in recent ten years and at the low level in recent ten years; The valuation of securities firm II (CITIC) Pb is 1.55 times, which is at the quantile level of 13.55% in recent ten years and at the low level in recent ten years. The current valuation of the securities industry is at a historically low level with a high margin of safety. Superimposed on the continuous release of policy dividends and capital market dividends in 2022, the current securities industry has the dual attributes of attack and defense.
The growth of net income from brokerage business slowed down, and securities companies accelerated the transformation of wealth management. The net income from brokerage business of listed securities companies in the first three quarters of 2021 was 104.027 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of + 19.25%; The proportion of net income from brokerage business in revenue changed little, with a slight year-on-year decline of 0.61pct to 22.14%. As of December 31, 2021, the average daily turnover of stock bases in the two cities was 1137 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 25.33%. In terms of commission rate, by the end of the third quarter of 2021, the overall commission rate of the industry was 2.45 per 10000, a year-on-year decrease of 0.14 per 10000, and the commission rate maintained a downward trend; However, with the increasing competition in the industry and the entry of foreign securities companies, the decline of commission rate may continue, which will further drag down the growth of brokerage business income and urge securities companies to accelerate the transformation of wealth management.
Regulators continued to deepen capital market reform. Regulators have repeatedly mentioned the full implementation of the stock issuance registration system, and proposed it in the central economic conference in 2021 and included it in the outline of the 14th five year plan. It is expected that the whole market registration system scheme is expected to be released in 2022, and the implementation of the whole market registration system can be expected. After the implementation of the whole market registration system, the financing efficiency of enterprises will be greatly improved, and the mainstream financing mode will be transferred from indirect financing to direct financing, which will help to improve the proportion of direct financing and better serve the real economy.
Investment suggestion: in 2022, with the further promotion of capital market reform and the wealth management transformation of securities companies, the industry will gradually form a differentiated development pattern, and the advantages of subdivided fields will gradually appear. In terms of policy, with the promotion of “housing without speculation”, the attribute of real estate investment has weakened, the transition period of new asset management regulations has ended, and the rate of return on bank financial management has declined. Residents need to seek new investment directions, which will bring incremental funds to wealth management business. It is expected that in 2022, the wealth management business is expected to open up a broad performance space and promote the rise of industry valuation. It is suggested to pay attention to Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) (600030), a leading brokerage with business advantages, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) (000776) with wealth management transformation advantages, Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) (601688) with strong scientific and technological attributes, and China stock market news (300059), an Internet growth brokerage with strong liquidity.
Risk tip: the commission rate fell more than expected, the stock based turnover shrank significantly, and the progress of capital market reform was less than expected
