Steel:
The procurement volume of thread snails this week was – 46.88% month on month and – 13.92% year-on-year; The total output of the five varieties of steel was – 2.63% month on month and – 13.46% year on year; The total of social Treasury and factory Treasury was + 4.53% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of – 13.80%; Steel price index + 0.32% month on month; The gross profit of the four major varieties of steel decreased month on month. The rise of raw materials compresses profits. In the short term, the production of the Winter Olympics is limited and the supply is limited in the first quarter. Under the statement of stabilizing the economy, infrastructure and real estate will hedge the downward pressure of the economy, and the construction demand after the festival may meet the marginal improvement. In the long term, we need to pay attention to the field of growth special steel.
Industrial metals:
The current price of LME copper / the current price of Yangtze nonferrous copper this week was + 0.71% / – 0.57% month on month; LME aluminum current price / Changjiang nonferrous aluminum current price month on month + 3.43% / + 0.80%. In terms of aluminum, on the supply side, the expectation of production reduction under the European energy crisis is still spreading. China’s supply in the first quarter will be limited by the Winter Olympic Games, which will only reduce but not increase in the short term; The export performance of the demand side is good, the profit side remains improved, and it is optimistic that the industrial metal boom will pick up under the stable economy.
New energy metals:
In terms of lithium, the price of lithium carbonate / lithium hydroxide this week was + 10.94% / + 5.97% month on month. The supply and demand of lithium in the upstream raw material is still tight and the inventory is low. The downstream enterprises are relatively receptive to the current lithium price. The market share is the primary consideration of battery manufacturers and automobile enterprises. It is expected that the lithium price center will continue to rise.
Rare earth:
The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide / dysprosium oxide / terbium oxide this week was + 2.22% / 0.00% / 0.00% month on month. Myanmar’s customs closure and energy shortage restrict supply, and the demand for magnetic materials under the framework of energy-saving motors and new energy is gradually expanding, which is optimistic about the prosperity of the industry for a long time.
Investment advice
It is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) (603995. SH), Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) (002756. SZ). It is recommended to pay attention to Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) (688388. SH), Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) (600219. SH) for industrial metals. It is suggested to focus on Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) (002460. SZ), Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) (002466. SZ), Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) (000792. SZ). It is suggested to pay attention to China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) (600111. SH), China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) (000831. SZ).
Risk tips
The risk of price fluctuation of raw materials, the risk that downstream demand is lower than expected, and the risk that covid-19 epidemic spread is higher than expected.
