Industry core view:
The overall forecast performance of the electronics industry in 2021 has achieved significant growth, especially in the optical and optoelectronic, electronic chemicals and semiconductor sectors. The market growth of new energy vehicles, smart homes and wafer manufacturing has put forward a huge demand for the supply of relevant upstream products.
Key investment points:
The overall forecast performance of the electronics industry in 2021 has increased significantly: as of January 24, 2022, 91 listed companies in Shenwan electronics industry have disclosed the performance forecast of 2021. The forecast range of the total net profit attributable to the parent company of these companies in 2021 is 58.868-62.899 billion yuan, an increase of 230.16% - 252.77% compared with the total net profit attributable to the parent company of 17.83 billion yuan in 2020. Its Costar Group Co.Ltd(002189) optoelectronics, electronic chemicals and semiconductors increased significantly, and its net profit attributable to parent increased by 343.16% - 356.68%, 148.46% - 182.23% and 141.51% - 162.22% respectively compared with the forecast in 2020. The fast-growing performance reflects the strong market demand in the fields of optical products, electronic chemicals and various chips.
The performance of the optical optoelectronic sector is particularly outstanding in BOE: among the 18 listed companies disclosed in this sector, BOE led Qunxian with a predicted net profit of 25.7-26 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 410% - 416%. Although it decreased compared with the growth rate of 1023.96% in the first half of 2021, it still achieved a relatively high-speed profit growth in the whole year, And the profit is reflected in the total forecast profits of the 18 disclosed optical and optoelectronic companies, accounting for 88.41% - 90.06%, which shows that BOE has outstanding economies of scale. However, after the epidemic, the online economic stimulus effect turned from strong to weak, the adjustment of the national real estate market and the continuous decline of product prices in the second half of the year made its profit growth relatively weak. At present, the space for further decline of panel prices is relatively limited, and the safety margin is increasing.
The performance of the electronic chemicals sector is obviously driven by the downstream market: the total predicted net profit of the seven listed companies disclosed in this sector is 1.395-1.585 billion yuan, which has achieved a significant increase compared with the total net profit attributable to the parent company of 562 million yuan in 2020. Among them, Hubei Dinglong Co.Ltd(300054) , Crystal Clear Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300655) and other performances are particularly prominent, and its predicted net profit increased by 230.42% - 249.01% and 120.92% - 185.90% respectively year-on-year. The optoelectronic semiconductor process materials of Hubei Dinglong Co.Ltd(300054) and the photoresist and lithium battery materials of Crystal Clear Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300655) are selling vigorously under the strong pull of downstream chips, new energy vehicles and other markets.
The overall performance of the semiconductor sector showed a rapid growth trend: the total predicted net profit of 39 listed companies disclosed in the sector was 25.828-28.042 billion yuan, a significant increase compared with the total predicted net profit of 10.694 billion yuan in 2020. The growth rate of the company's forecast profit in this sector is mostly more than 100%. It can be seen that the overall outstanding performance of semiconductors in the electronic industry is more obvious. Representative ones include Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , whose predicted net profit increased by 2145% - 2165%. The market growth of new energy vehicles and other markets has driven its power device products in short supply; The forecast net profit of Shanghai Bright Power Semiconductor Co.Ltd(688368) increased by 858% - 887%. The rapid development of smart home and smart city promoted the demand of smart LED lighting market and driven the performance of Shanghai Bright Power Semiconductor Co.Ltd(688368) with LED lighting driver chip as the main product.
Risk factors: the risk of the epidemic spreading again, the risk of intensified market competition, and the risk that the track growth rate is lower than expected.
