In 2021, the three major shipbuilding indicators increased in an all-round way: according to the statistics of the shipbuilding industry association, 39.7 million deadweight tons of shipbuilding were completed in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%. New ship orders of 67.07 million dwt were undertaken, with a year-on-year increase of 131.8%. At the end of December, the orders for hand-held ships were 95.84 million dwt, a year-on-year increase of 34.8%. China’s export ships completed 35.93 million dwt, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%; Export ship orders of 59.36 million dwt were undertaken, with a year-on-year increase of 142.8%; At the end of December, the orders of handheld export ships were 84.53 million dwt, a year-on-year increase of 29.6%. Export ships accounted for 90.5%, 88.5% and 88.2% of the national shipbuilding completion, new orders and hand-held orders respectively.
The overall scale of shipbuilding ranks first in the world, and the proportion of subdivided ship types continues to increase: according to Clarkson’s statistics, among the global shipbuilding indicators in 2021 (calculated by DWT), China’s shipbuilding completion accounted for 48.4%, new orders accounted for 52.0%, and handheld orders accounted for 48.1%. All three indicators rank first in the world. In 2021, China undertook 32.19 million DWT bulk carriers, accounting for 76.4% of the global total. The orders of container ships exceeded, with a total of 27.38 million dwt of container ships, accounting for 60.9% of the global total. Continue to make efforts in the high-end ship segment market, and undertake orders for chemical ships, automobile transport ships, marine auxiliary ships and multi-purpose ships, accounting for 72.7%, 76.6%, 64.7% and 63.3% of the global total by DWT respectively. Among the 18 major ship types in the world, China has 10 ship types, and the number of new orders ranks first in the world.
The profit growth of ship supporting enterprises was the most significant: according to the statistics of the shipbuilding industry association, from January to November 2021, there were 1093 National Shipbuilding Enterprises above Designated Size, realizing a main business income of 425.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%. Among them, shipbuilding enterprises reached 262.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%; Ship supporting enterprises reached 73.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%; Ship repair enterprises reached 25.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%; Ship refitting enterprises reached 3.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%; Offshore equipment manufacturing enterprises reached 54.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.9%.
From January to November 2021, shipbuilding enterprises above Designated Size achieved a total profit of 7.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.4%. Among them, shipbuilding enterprises reached 1.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%; Ship supporting enterprises reached 2.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.6%; Ship repair enterprises reached 1.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.3%; Ship refitting enterprises reached 410 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9%; Offshore equipment manufacturing enterprises achieved 1.45 billion yuan, turning losses into profits year-on-year.
The rapid rise of comprehensive costs has compressed the profit space of shipbuilding enterprises: in 2021, the price of international bulk commodities fluctuated sharply, driving the price of raw materials to rise continuously. At the end of 2021, compared with the beginning of 2021, the main specifications of shipbuilding board, cable, paint and other marine materials increased by 14%, 20% and 50% respectively, and the marine main engine, crankshaft, propeller and other key marine supporting equipment generally increased by about 25%. According to the calculation of the shipbuilding industry association, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar fluctuated both downward and upward throughout the year, with a slight appreciation of 2.3% and a cumulative appreciation of more than 8% in two years. Under the double squeeze of the overall rise of raw material prices and the appreciation of the RMB, the profit space of shipbuilding enterprises has been greatly reduced. The total profit of the whole year is only 1.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%, and the profit margin of main revenue is only 0.6%, forming a huge contrast with the upstream steel industry and the downstream shipping industry.
In 2022, the prospect of new ship orders is expected to continue, and the operating profit margin of the shipyard is expected to increase. According to the prediction of the shipbuilding industry association, in 2022, the uncertainty of the impact of covid-19 pneumonia on the world economy still exists, and the external environment is becoming more complex and severe. However, the confidence of the shipping and shipbuilding industry has been significantly boosted. In addition, the New International Maritime Environmental Protection Regulations are about to take effect and the market opportunities brought by the demand for decarbonization, It is expected that the global demand for new ship ordering will not shrink significantly in 2022, and the trading volume will be about 90 million dwt. In 2022, China’s shipbuilding completion is expected to exceed 40 million dwt, and the number of new orders will decline to a certain extent.
In 2021, the hand-held orders and completion orders of ship enterprises are mainly new ship orders from 2019 to 2020, and the overall ship price level is low. Affected by the rise of new ship prices in 2021, it is expected that the overall ship price of hand-held orders of ship enterprises in 2022 will be higher than that in 2021. Without considering the changes of exchange rate and steel price, it is expected that the profit margin of ship enterprises in 2022 will be higher than that in 2021. Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to the ship supporting enterprises whose revenue continues to grow driven by the recovery of the shipbuilding industry and whose operating profit is relatively less affected by the rise of raw material prices, such as China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) , Asian Star Anchor Chain Co.Ltd.Jiangsu(601890) , China Marine Information Electronics Company Limited(600764) and other listed companies. In 2022, driven by the rise in the price of new ship orders in 2021, the operating profit margin of the shipyard is expected to gradually improve. It is suggested to pay attention to ship manufacturing enterprises such as China Cssc Holdings Limited(600150) , China Shipbuilding Industry Company Limited(601989) , Cssc Offshore & Marine Engineering (Group) Company Limited(600685) .
Risk warning: the risk of new ship orders falling short of expectations; The rise of RMB exchange rate leads to the risk that the performance of shipping enterprises is lower than expected; The rise in steel prices leads to the risk that the performance of shipbuilding enterprises is lower than expected.
