Industry perspective:
Wind power generation: photovoltaic power generation projects have abundant resources, and the installed capacity will increase rapidly in the next two years. In 2021, the installed capacity of photovoltaic grid connection was 53gw, with a year-on-year increase of 10%. Looking forward to 22-23 years, the construction scale of large base projects is expected to exceed 40gw / year, and the construction scale of “whole county promotion” pilot projects is expected to reach 40gw / year. It is conservatively estimated that the resources of conventional ground power station projects are 30GW + / year, and the construction of conventional distributed projects is 10GW + / year. Considering the construction planning and project reserves of distributed pilot projects, general distributed projects, large scenic base projects and conventional ground power stations in the whole county, we conservatively predict that the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in China will exceed 80gw / year in 22-23 years. If the grid connection conditions permit and the policy is not adjusted, the annual new installed capacity may exceed 100gw.
Power equipment: a new round of UHV project construction will be carried out during the 14th Five Year Plan period. According to the report of the photovoltaic group, the Energy Bureau recently issued the letter on entrusting to carry out the research and demonstration of supporting water, scenery and regulating power supply for the transmission channel in the 14th five year plan, which entrusted to carry out the research and demonstration on the 12 UHV channels in the 14th five year plan, and study the construction schemes of supporting wind power, photovoltaic base, hydropower, photothermal power generation and other power supply for the 12 channels; UHV can effectively support the large-scale optimal allocation of clean energy and help achieve the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutralization. It is expected that China will carry out a new round of UHV project construction during the 14th Five Year Plan period. Focus on listed companies such as UHV industrial chain Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , Henan Pinggao Electric Co.Ltd(600312) .
Charging infrastructure: ensure the energy supplement of electric vehicles and build the charging infrastructure system moderately in advance. Ten departments including the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration recently jointly issued the implementation opinions on further improving the service guarantee capacity of electric vehicle charging infrastructure. It is proposed that by the end of the 14th five year plan, China’s electric vehicle charging guarantee capacity will be further improved and can meet the charging demand of more than 20 million electric vehicles. We believe that at present, the construction of charging and replacement infrastructure is relatively backward, which is difficult to meet the charging demand brought by the increase of electric vehicle ownership. It is expected that the increment of charging infrastructure will be huge during the 14th Five Year Plan period. According to the calculation, we believe that the number of new energy vehicles will reach 37 million in 2025. To meet the charging demand, according to the calculation of vehicle pile ratio of 3:1, at least 12 million charging facilities are required, which is 4.7 times that at the end of 2021; With the unification of replacement standards, the penetration rate of integrated charging and replacement models is expected to increase rapidly. In 2025, the proportion of replacement electric vehicles is expected to reach 50%, the number of replaceable electric vehicles is expected to reach 10.5 million, the replacement time of single vehicle is 3-5 minutes, the average daily service vehicle of single station is 300, the utilization rate of replacement power station is expected to be 28%, and the demand for replacement power station is 25000, 19.2 times that of the end of 2021. It is recommended to pay attention to the charging and replacement equipment and operators, Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) , Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) , Shandong Weida Machinery Co.Ltd(002026) , Qingdao Tgood Electric Co.Ltd(300001) .
Important industry information:
National Energy Administration: hydrogen energy is listed as the key direction of the energy industry standard plan in 2022. Recently, the National Energy Administration issued the guidelines for the establishment of the 2022 energy industry standard plan, which mentioned that closely focusing on the implementation of the new energy security strategy of “four revolutions and one cooperation”, we should build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system, support the objectives and tasks of energy carbon peaking and carbon neutralization, and highlight key areas and key technical requirements according to the development needs of the energy industry, Propose energy industry standard plan. In the annex “key directions for project establishment of energy industry standard plan”, renewable energy sources such as Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , wind power, biomass utilization, nuclear power, new energy storage and hydrogen energy are mentioned.
One week market performance:
Industry performance: among the 28 Shenwan level industries, the electrical equipment industry fell by 2.90%, ranking 21st; The utility industry fell 0.68% this week, ranking 14th.
Performance of sub sectors: among the sub sectors, hydropower, thermal power and comprehensive power equipment manufacturers ranked among the top three, with increases of 1.84%, 0.56% and 0.00% respectively; Photovoltaic processing equipment, photovoltaic power generation, cable components and other growth ranked the last three, with – 6.02%, – 5.63% and – 5.58% respectively.
Growth of individual stocks: Among Listed Companies in the power and energy industry, Chongqing Wanli New Energy Co.Ltd(600847) , Dalian Insulator Group Co.Ltd(002606) , Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) , Bafang Electric( Suzhou) Co.Ltd(603489) , Ning Xia Yin Xing Energy Co.Ltd(000862) ranked among the top five, rising by 20.99%, 12.19%, 10.51%, 9.87% and 9.41% respectively.
