The previous report “supply and demand balance table of power coal framework” discussed the impact of renewable energy development on coal demand volatility under the dual carbon background, as well as the sorting of supply side policy tools and their role in amplifying price fluctuations. This paper is the second part of the framework of power coal. It intends to explore the international trade system of coal in China from the perspective of coal (and power) transportation channel, and look at the changes of supply and demand in the coal market from the perspective of trade price difference.
\u3000\u30001. What changes have taken place in the production and sales structure of coal in the past five years?
China’s coal producing areas are concentrated in the West. After the elimination of small production capacity, except for the main coal producing areas in Shanxi, Xinjiang, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, the coal output in other parts of China continues to decline.
UHV and Kengkou power stations guide the return of coal sales to the origin, but affected by the policy, its impact on the coal trade structure has come to an end.
In terms of import, Indonesian coal is more important after Australian coal restrictions. In the future, affected by China’s local production increase, China’s total coal imports will decline.
\u3000\u30002. What are the key channels and nodes of the coal trade route?
Domestic trade mainly depends on railways. Daqin line, Shuohuang line, Zhangtang line and Wari line are the main trunk roads of “west to East Coal Transportation”, among which Daqin line has the most obvious cost advantage.
In terms of import routes, after the ban on the import of Australian coal, the main import coal trade routes are from machen port in Indonesia to Beilun, Ningbo, Fangcheng and Huangpu ports in China.
In terms of important ports, the seven northern ports, represented by Qinhuangdao port, are the node connecting the pit mouth and the northern power plant. Nanfang port, such as Shanghai port, Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company Limited(601018) , Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) , is a node connecting domestic trade coal and foreign trade coal.
\u3000\u30003. Using trade price difference to observe the change of coal supply and demand
“Port pit” price difference is the leading indicator of coal price. The logic is that when the railway trade profit bottoms out and picks up, the trade arbitrage drives the pit price to rise; On the contrary, when the trade arbitrage space is large or even peaked, the trade arbitrage behavior will drive the port price down. According to the leading analysis, the price difference of domestic trade is about 6 days ahead of the port price of Qinhuangdao.
The price difference between “internal coal and external coal” may remain low under the background of loose internal and tight external supply and demand of coal. The historical norm is that the price of domestic coal is higher than that of foreign coal. 2022 can be compared with 2015 in history. Under the dual influence of internal loose and external tension of coal supply and exchange rate factors, China’s coal price and imported coal price remain low or even upside down in stages.
Risk warning: UHV construction is not as expected; The transfer of coal consumption is less than expected; Coal price difference is lower than expected, etc
