Core view:
Macroeconomic pressure still exists, and GDP in 2021q4 and the whole year increased by 4% and 8.1% year-on-year; From January to December, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 9.6% year-on-year. In December, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 4.3% year-on-year, which is at the low level since 2021; From January to December, the total investment in fixed assets increased by 4.9% year-on-year, lower than the growth rate of the previous November; In December, the total social consumption increased by 1.7% year-on-year, hitting a new low in the whole year; In December, exports increased by 20.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate continued to converge; PMI recorded 50.3%, keeping above the boom and bust line. On the whole, the performance of various indicators is weak, and the economic pressure still exists.
Government bonds and corporate bonds drive new social finance to pick up, and the growth rate of medium and long-term loans is still weak. In December, new social finance increased by 2.37 trillion yuan in a single month, an increase of 649 billion yuan year-on-year. The further recovery is mainly due to the increased issuance of government bonds and corporate bonds. Among them, RMB loans increased by 1.04 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 110.8 billion yuan; Government bonds increased by 1.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 454.8 billion yuan year-on-year; Corporate bond financing and domestic stock financing of non-financial enterprises increased by 216.7 billion yuan and 207.5 billion yuan, an increase of 173.1 billion yuan and 94.9 billion yuan year-on-year; Off balance sheet financing decreased by 638.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 100.7 billion yuan. From the perspective of sub sectors, the loan growth rate of the resident sector has dropped, and the credit demand of enterprises is still weak. In December, the new loans of the residential sector increased by 371.6 billion yuan in a single month, a year-on-year decrease of 191.9 billion yuan. The enterprise sector increased RMB loans by 662 billion yuan, an increase of 66.7 billion yuan year-on-year; Among them, the new medium and long-term loans were 339.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 210.7 billion yuan.
The central bank cut interest rates to underpin the macro economy, and there is still room for follow-up policies. Both MLF and Omo cut interest rates by 10bp. The implementation of the requirements of the central economic work conference to stabilize the macro economy + appropriate forward policy force is conducive to coping with the expected impact of the Fed’s interest rate increase, underpin the macro economy, and drive the one-year and five-year LPR down 10bp and 5bp at the same time, Help reduce the comprehensive financing cost of real enterprises, support the credit demand, and put pressure on the bank interest margin in the short term, but at the same time, it is expected to benefit from the improvement of credit growth and asset quality. The press conference on financial statistics pointed out that we should enhance the stability of the growth of total credit, maintain the basic matching between the growth of money supply and social financing scale and economic growth. At the same time, we should expand the monetary policy toolbox and structural monetary policy tools, and actively do a good job in “addition”, and there is still room for follow-up policies.
The allocation heat of urban commercial banks has increased. Institutional positions prefer retail + wealth management + location advantage varieties. 2021q4 fund accounts for 78.704 billion yuan and 2.98% of the total market value and positions of banks, a decrease of 6.41% and 0.43 percentage points compared with 2021q3. Among them, the positions of urban commercial banks accounted for 1.6%, an increase of 0.52 percentage points over 2021q3. The banks with the highest number of fund heavy positions include China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) and Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) ; The top five banks in the total market value and position proportion of heavy positions are China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) and Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) .
Investment suggestions and policies underpin the macro economy, benefit the improvement of the bank’s business environment, and help increase credit supply and optimize asset quality. A number of listed banks have disclosed the performance express of 2021, the growth rate of revenue continues to improve, the net profit maintains rapid growth, the non-performing rate and provision coverage perform well, and the overall fundamentals are stable and good, which supports the valuation. At present, the Pb of the sector is 0.66 times, the valuation is at a historical low, and the configuration value is prominent. We continue to be optimistic about investment opportunities in the banking sector and give a “recommended” rating. For individual stocks, we continue to recommend China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (600036), Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) (00000 1), Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) (601128), Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) (600926) and Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) (601009).
The risk indicates that the macroeconomic growth rate is lower than expected, resulting in the risk of deterioration of bank asset quality.
