In 2021q3 & 4, due to repeated epidemics in many places, the willingness to travel is obviously under pressure, but the per capita consumption has increased. According to the data released by the Ministry of culture and tourism, 1) in 2021, the total number of Chinese tourists was 3.246 billion, an increase of 367 million / + 12.8% over the same period of last year. (back to 54.0% in 2019.) China's tourism revenue reached 2.92 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.69 trillion yuan / + 31.0% over the same period last year. (back to 51.0% in 2019.) The annual per capita tourism consumption was 899.28 yuan, an increase of 125.14 yuan / + 16.2% over the same period last year. 2) Split single quarter: the total number of Chinese tourists in Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 recovered to 57.6% / 65.0% / 53.9% / 39.5% in the same period in 2019 respectively; Q1 ~ 2 / Q3 / Q4 tourism revenue recovered to 59% / 47% / 40% respectively in the same period in 2019; The per capita tourism consumption of Q1 ~ 2 / Q3 / Q4 recovered to 97% / 87% / 101% respectively in the same period in 2019.
In 2022, we believe that China's tourism on the policy side is expected to usher in more positive changes. 1) The epidemic prevention policy is expected to usher in new changes: in terms of national epidemic prevention and control, it is expected to learn from the advanced experience of epidemic prevention and control in Shanghai and promote accurate prevention and control policies, so as to reduce the impact on normal economic activities, reduce residents' panic and stabilize Consumption Willingness. At the same time, considering the steady progress of covid-19 specific drugs and vaccines outside China, we are positive and optimistic about the national epidemic prevention and control in 2022. 2) Tourism support policies are expected to continue to be implemented: tourism has a significant effect on enriching the people, and the development of tourism has an obvious multiplier effect on the boost of local GDP. According to the calculation of the world tourism organization, every 1 yuan of direct income of tourism will bring 4.3 yuan of value-added benefits to industries related to the national economy. Boosting tourism is expected to become an important starting point for local governments to boost the economy in 2022 and 23. If the epidemic can be effectively controlled, local governments are expected to stimulate tourism consumption by distributing coupons and promoting ticket discounts.
Investment suggestion: with the smooth launch of covid-19 vaccine and specific drugs, we believe that the epidemic situation in China is expected to be effectively controlled in 2022. At the same time, even if the epidemic situation is still repeated in a small range, we believe that the epidemic prevention and control policy is also expected to be accurate and reduce the panic caused by the repeated epidemic situation on Residents' consumption and travel. Local governments may be expected to stimulate the recovery of tourism consumption by distributing coupons and promoting ticket discounts. The high-end demand for high-frequency peripheral short distance tours and return outbound tours will drive the rapid repair of China's tourism market. We are optimistic about the recovery of the follow-up tourism sector. We suggest that we continue to pay attention to the development of the epidemic and the changes of tourism policies and markets outside China. Focus on Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Huangshan Tourism Development Co.Ltd(600054) with high performance flexibility, and focus on Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) benefiting from ice and snow sports. We mainly recommend Fosun travel, which is positioned as a high-end vacation and is expected to benefit from the return of high-end outbound tourists. It is Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) in the upgrading of medium and high-end product line and pays attention to the theme of card parent-child Ocean Park.
Risk warning: the impact of the epidemic exceeds expectations, and the market competition intensifies the risk
