\u3000\u3000 Ningbo Peacebird Fashion Co.Ltd(603877) (603877)
The epidemic situation, weather and cost investment dragged down Q4 performance, the annual growth was lower than expected, and the "buy" rating was maintained
The company released the performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 660 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 7%, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 500 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 11%. The performance is lower than expected, mainly because the cold winter is less than expected, which affects the dynamic sales of products in winter, and the negative effect of operating leverage caused by the high proportion of direct sales under the epidemic is obvious The sharp growth of expense side (amortization of headquarters building / product promotion advertising / digital transformation) led to a significant decline in 2021q4 profit. We lowered the profit forecast and predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 would be RMB 660 / 820 / 980 million (previously RMB 1.01 / 12.8 / 1.56 billion), corresponding to EPS of RMB 1.4 / 1.7 / 2.1 respectively, and the current share price corresponding to PE of 17.7 / 14.3 / 12.0 times respectively. Based on the effective digital transformation and the expectation of stable performance growth, we will continue to maintain the "buy" rating.
The core brands and online performance are basically stable, and it is expected that the channel structure and quality will continue to be adjusted in 2022
Tiktok: (1) the channel is tiktok: the retail sales in 2021 are expected to grow by 15-20%, accounting for 30%+, while Tmall, jitter and vip.com account for 50%, 20-25% and 15-20% respectively. Among them, the channel of chattering channels has been promoted faster, with a net interest rate of about 10-15%, and a smooth channel with Tmall. Offline, under the weak business environment of 2021q4, the decline in the growth of direct same store and the decline in franchise retail sales lead to the lack of fast reaction ratio. The company expects that there will be about 100 direct stores and 500 franchise stores in 2021. By the end of 2021, the number of offline stores of the company is expected to be 5218. The speed of direct store expansion has slowed down significantly. We expect that the channel quality and structure of the company will continue to be adjusted in 2022, Direct sales channels will show a net closing trend. (2) In terms of brands: the profits of Pb women's clothing, men's clothing and children's clothing among the core brands in the whole year still increased year-on-year. The growth of women's clothing brand was slightly lower than expected, mainly due to the rapid adjustment of product style and the lack of systematic planning of goods categories. However, the performance of leting brand decreased significantly, mainly due to the fact that Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) was in the adjustment stage.
The inventory is relatively benign under retail fluctuations, and the medium and short-term cost side expenditure is expected to increase
(1) inventory side: the poor dynamic sales of products in autumn and winter is mainly due to the tight supply chain and the increase of the proportion of futures under the expectation of cold winter, but the year-on-year decline of inventory is mainly due to the decrease of overall production; In summer, the dynamic sales and production and sales rate of products are good, but the inventory increases slightly, mainly due to the significant increase in production under the target of high traction flow; (2) Cost side: 2021q4 company has strengthened brand promotion and accelerated the expansion of spokesperson matrix (adding Wang Yibo as the global spokesperson of Ningbo Peacebird Fashion Co.Ltd(603877) brand, Bai Jingting as the spokesperson of Pb men's brand, and Olympic champion Yang Qian as the spokesperson of Pb women's superchina Series). It is expected that the medium and short-term expenses will still increase under the background of brand construction and digital transformation.
Risk tip: the epidemic affected the offline retail environment, channel adjustment and fee control ability, which were not improved as expected.
