\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 572 Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) )
The scale of the furniture industry has increased steadily and slightly. The scale of the customization industry is about 240 billion yuan, and the proportion of wardrobe is higher than that of cabinet. According to the data of the Bureau of statistics, the operating revenue of furniture manufacturing industry increased from Suzhou Jinfu Technology Co.Ltd(300128) billion yuan in 2008 to 800460 billion yuan in 2021, with a CAGR of 7.84%. We estimate that the current scale of the customization industry is about 240 billion yuan. Under the neutral assumption: the sales scale of new houses in the medium and short term is maintained at 1.5 billion m3, the sales scale of existing houses is about 4.2 million sets, the customer unit prices of cabinets and wardrobe are 10000 yuan and 25000 yuan respectively, and the penetration rates are 65% and 35% respectively. To sum up, the scale of the cabinet industry is about 100.9 billion yuan (of which the engineering business is expected to be 29 billion yuan), and the scale of the wardrobe is about 135.8 billion yuan (of which the engineering business is expected to account for 10%).
The demand for new houses is the basic market. Considering that the sales scale of new houses continues to rise after 2008, assuming that the renovation cycle of stock houses is 15 years, we expect the proportion of stock renewal demand to accelerate in the next three years. According to our calculation, the proportion of national stock renewal demand in 2022 / 2023 / 2024 / 2025 is about 19% / 20% / 22% / 25%. On the other hand, the consumer structure may gradually change from "spindle type" to "dumbbell type". The base of head improved users and rigid demand customers has gradually expanded, and head enterprises have realized multi category layout.
Head customization enterprises have gradually completed category expansion and have the ability to provide integrated solutions for the whole house. "Big home" and "Omni channel and multi brand" can not only meet the one-stop shopping needs of consumers, but also significantly improve the customer unit price of enterprises. The furniture industry has the characteristics of "personalized front-end design and standardized back-end manufacturing". The large-scale development and category expansion of enterprises test the informatization, digitization, intelligent manufacturing level and supply chain ability of enterprises. At present, the comprehensive ability of home leaders has emerged.
In 2021, Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) achieved a revenue of 10.407 billion yuan and opened a new chapter of development from a new starting point of 10 billion yuan Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) was established in 2003 and listed in 2011. In 2013, the company began to lay out the development strategy of large home, gradually expand the whole house categories such as cabinets, wooden doors and supporting products, and realize an income of 10.4 billion yuan in 2021. In the same year, the company established the development strategy of "all channels, multi brands and all categories" for large home, combined with the whole packaging channel and digital intelligence system to promote the company to enter a new development stage.
Build all-channel marketing, all category operation, improve product quality and improve customer acquisition ability. In 21 years, the income of wardrobe was 8.27 billion yuan, which was the leading in the industry. The unit price of end-user in the factory in 21 years was 14491 yuan / single. The expansion of cabinets and supporting products is smooth. Simi brand is transformed into high-end whole house customization. It is positioned as "special cabinets, fine wardrobe and good supporting", which is the second growth curve of the company; Milanna's entire customized and rapid layout of the medium and low-end market.
Channel side: reconstruct the competitiveness of retail terminals by improving the dealer incentive management mechanism and store renewal. The distribution channel revenue in 21 years was 8.36 billion yuan, with more than 4000 distribution stores, covering more than 1800 cities in China. 2.9 billion yuan of direct cooperation with distributors, and 2.5 billion yuan of sales revenue; In 19, the proportion of e-commerce channel drainage customers increased to 27%, and the drainage effect was among the best in the industry. Supply side: continuously increase capital investment, build production lines and improve the national capacity layout. At the same time, improve the coverage of digital intelligence and realize large-scale flexible production.
Profit forecast and rating: it is optimistic that the company will continue to promote the reform of retail business, and the whole customized package is expected to promote the gradual increase of customer unit value Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) brand injects new power through store renewal, and Simi and milanna are ready to develop; In terms of marketing, enabling terminals, packaging, e-commerce and other channels need to be strengthened. It is estimated that the profit of 22 / 23 / 24 will be 1.391/16.87/2.027 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 103486% / + 21.25% / + 20.19%, corresponding to pe14x / 11x / 10x. Referring to the average PE of comparable companies in 2022, we give the company a target price range of 25.84-30.40 yuan in 2022, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: tightening of real estate regulation policies, fluctuation of raw material prices, repeated epidemic exceeding expectations, intensified industry competition, deviation of calculation results of stock housing market space and customized industry scale, etc.
