\u3000\u3000 Victory Giant Technology (Huizhou)Co.Ltd(300476) (300476)
The company announced 2021 performance forecast, the guidelines met expectations and maintained the "buy" rating
The company announced the performance forecast for 2021. It is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 750-850 million yuan, the Central Bank of 800 million yuan, yoy + 44.5% ~ 63.8%, and the impact of non recurring profits and losses is about 54 million yuan, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company of 128-228 million yuan and the Central Bank of 178 million yuan in the single quarter of 2021q4. We maintain the previous profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 7.09/10.3/12.73 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 8.4/12.8/1.64 billion yuan, the corresponding EPS will be 0.97/1.48/1.90 yuan, and the current share price will be 29.1/19.0/14.8 times that of PE. Considering the company's continuous layout of HDI, IC carrier and other high-end products, as overseas customers enter the mass production period, the profitability will rise to a new level, Maintain the "buy" rating.
2021q4 continues to adjust the product structure, and the advanced pace of HDI is accelerated
As the capacity growth rate of 2021q4 is basically flat compared with Q3, and the raw material cost of upstream copper clad laminate is reduced, we expect the profit of 2021q4 to fall to the middle and upper range of the forecast. 2021q4 company has made technical iterations and continuously adjusted the product structure, introduced new customers of server, automobile and mobile terminal brands, increased the number of production line certification of the original global leading new energy vehicle manufacturers, and switched the material number of mobile phone products from ODM distribution board to the direct supply material number of brand manufacturers. The upgrading of HDI production line has been accelerated. Compared with 2021h1, the proportion of first-order products in 2021h2 has decreased, and the proportion of second-order and third-order products has increased. Notebook computer motherboard, intelligent driving on-board server, micro base station and other products have been added. With the implementation of HDI technical transformation project in 2022, Huizhou factory investment is expected to enter the closing stage.
Firm the road of product upgrading and inclusive talent introduction
The company is the most active manufacturer in product and scale support among domestic manufacturers, and has a high degree of fit with the new scheme of customers in the next 2-3 years. The company is determined to upgrade its products. It is expected that Nantong factory will be put into operation by the end of 2022, and will march from traditional multilayer board to HDI, IC packaging substrate and other products. It is expected to benefit from the large-scale application of aiot terminal and the wave of localization of semiconductor materials. The company has successful experience in the field of HDI and Netcom products, the management is proactive, and introduces core team members of Taiwan funded and foreign-funded manufacturers from outside to connect with customer products in time.
Risk tips: exchange loss risk, uncertainty of directional fund-raising scheme, impact of epidemic situation on PCB business demand, import of HDI order is less than expected, and mass production yield of high and multi-layer PCB hard board is less than expected.
