Baicheng medicine (301096)
Event: on January 25, 2022, the company released the annual performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, the company is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 99-110 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 72.46% – 91.63%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 90-100 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 64.04% – 82.26%, and the performance growth was in line with expectations.
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase by 72% – 92% year-on-year, and the performance growth is in line with the expectation. In 2021, the company is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 99-110 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 72.46% – 91.63%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 90-100 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 64.04% – 82.26%, and the performance growth was in line with expectations. The high growth of the company’s performance in 2021 is mainly due to the rapid development of entrusted R & D services and the transformation of R & D technological achievements.
Entrusted R & D services, transformation of R & D technological achievements and other businesses are booming, which is expected to drive the continuous high growth of the company’s performance in the future
The main businesses of Baicheng pharmaceutical include entrusted R & D services, transformation of R & D technological achievements and R & D of innovative drugs. At present, entrusted R & D services, transformation of R & D technological achievements and other businesses are booming, which is expected to drive the continuous high growth of the company’s performance.
(1) the orders for entrusted R & D services are growing rapidly, and this business is expected to become the core driving force for the company’s performance growth. After years of R & D investment and technology accumulation, the company has formed an industry-leading competitive advantage in generic drug R & D services, comprehensively arranged the fields of high-end preparations such as inhalation preparations, transdermal preparations, sustained and controlled release preparations and fine particles, and fully covered well-known pharmaceutical enterprises in China. At present, the industry is gradually entering the harvest period, and the order reserve is growing rapidly. According to the company’s announcement, by the end of 2021, the company’s orders on hand had reached 893 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 76.88%. It will continue to be optimistic about the rapid growth of entrusted R & D services in the future.
(2) there are many kinds of independent projects for R & D technological achievement transformation business, and the company is expected to continue to obtain premium payment and post market sales share of products. According to the company’s announcement, as of 2021h1, the company has independently approved more than 100 varieties, covering the fields of respiration, digestion, infection, tumor, mental nerve, cardiovascular and so on. The company has rich project approval reserves and promoted the continuous and high growth of R & D technology achievement transformation business.
(3) innovative drug R & D is arranged around mature targets and new targets (H3, CDK4 / 6, PI3K and PPAR have been arranged at present) α/δ And other targets), covering tumor, nervous system, respiratory system, digestive system, immune system and other fields. At present, the entrusted R & D service of innovative drugs and pharmacy has begun to contribute revenue, and the medium and long-term business of the company is expected to gradually extend to the R & D of innovative drugs.
Investment suggestions: we expect the company to realize net profits of 102 million yuan, 192 million yuan and 299 million yuan respectively from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 77.9%, 88.0% and 55.6% respectively; Give an investment rating of buy-a.
Risk tips: the risk of new drug R & D falling short of expectations, the risk of intensified competition among generic drug cros, the risk of slowdown in the growth of generic drug consistency evaluation business, etc.
