Power investment energy (002128)
Event: on January 25, 2022, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2021 will be about 3.56 billion yuan, an increase of about 71.9% year-on-year.
21q4 performance fell month on month. According to the announcement, the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2021 is expected to be about 3.56 billion yuan, an increase of about 71.9% year-on-year. According to the calculation of the announcement, in the fourth quarter of 2021, the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company of 685 million yuan, a month on month decrease of 34.33% and a year-on-year increase of 5793.41%.
Early layout of new energy power generation and transformation of comprehensive energy suppliers. Since 2014, the company has actively deployed new energy power generation. At present, it mainly invests in the field of photovoltaic and wind power. At present, the installed capacity of the company’s new energy projects in operation and under construction (including proposed projects) has reached 5298mw (equity installed capacity 4318mw), of which the installed capacity of photovoltaic projects is 1453mw, accounting for 34% of the company’s new energy installed capacity (including proposed projects), The installed capacity of wind power projects is 2865mw (equity), accounting for 68%. In the past, the company’s new energy projects were mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia, especially in eastern Mongolia, and Shanxi also had a slight layout. However, recently, the company has actively invested and built projects in Shaanxi, Shandong, Tianjin and Jilin, and gradually developed from a regional company to a national company. On October 26, 2021, the company announced that it would change its name from ” Huolinhe Opencut Coal Industry Corporation Limited Of Inner Mongolia(002128) ” to “power investment energy”, marking the transformation of the company’s future development direction from the original main coal industry to the new energy field, and the company’s gradual transformation from traditional energy suppliers to comprehensive energy suppliers.
The main businesses of coal and electrolytic aluminum are expected to provide stable cash flow to support the development of the company’s new energy business. The company’s subordinate mines have a production capacity of 46 million tons / year, all of which are open-pit mining, and the production cost has significant advantages in the current A-share power coal company. According to the work plan for the signing and performance of medium and long-term coal contracts in 2022 (Exposure Draft) issued by the national development and Reform Commission, the benchmark price of Qinhuangdao long-term association is expected to increase from 535 yuan / ton to 700 yuan / ton in 2022. The proportion of the company’s long-term association is relatively high. Although the increase cannot be exactly the same, the price center is expected to increase steadily. In terms of electrolytic aluminum, Huo meihongjun (51% equity) of the company has an electrolytic aluminum equity production capacity of 860000 tons / year (corresponding to the company’s equity production capacity of 438600 tons / year), has its own power plant, has industry-leading profitability and stable medium and long-term profitability. In the future, the stable cash flow generated by the company’s coal and electrolytic aluminum business will continue to be invested in the construction of new energy power stations.
Investment suggestion: adjust the profit forecast according to the performance forecast. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company is expected to be 3.56 billion yuan / 4.056 billion yuan / 4.333 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, and the corresponding PE multiples are 8 times, 7 times and 7 times respectively (based on the share price on January 25, 2022). Considering the company’s active transformation to new energy in recent years, it is expected to obtain a valuation higher than that of pure thermal coal business. Therefore, we believe that the company’s valuation is expected to rebound and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: 1) the change of regional market demand may lead to the decline of coal price; 2) The profit of thermal power may decline due to the liberalization of the power market and the risk of increased cost; 3) There are many new energy projects under construction, with the risk of policy change; 4) Electrolytic aluminum prices fell sharply.
