\u3000\u3000 Jenkem Technology Co.Ltd(688356) (688356)
Event overview
On January 24, 2022, Jenkem Technology Co.Ltd(688356) released the performance forecast for 2021: the company expects to achieve an annual operating revenue of 350-353 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 87.54% - 89.15%; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the whole year will be 174-177 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 103.08% - 106.59%; It is estimated that the net profit of non parent company deduction in the whole year is RMB 157 million-160 million, with a year-on-year increase of 89.53% - 93.16%.
R & D and other expenses diluted Q4 profits and maintained a high profit level throughout the year
1) revenue side: the company expects to achieve an annual operating revenue of 350 million yuan to 353 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 87.54% - 89.15%. In the fourth quarter alone, the company expects to achieve a median revenue of 90 million yuan, an increase of 47.50% year-on-year and a decrease of 15.47% month on month. The slight decrease in month on month is due to the decrease in overseas shipments during holidays.
2) profit side: the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 174 million yuan to 177 million yuan in the whole year, with a year-on-year increase of 103.08% - 106.59%. In the fourth quarter alone, the company expects to realize the median net profit attributable to the parent company of 33 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.15% and a month on month decrease of 46.35%. The main reasons for the month on month decrease are as follows: 1) the company's research project polyethylene glycol irinotecan entered phase II in November 2021, and the R & D expenses increased significantly; 2) Impact of equity incentive expenses; 3) The accrued amount of year-end bonus is relatively high, which is greater than the sum of the first three quarters of 2021; 4) Investment income decreased.
Irinotecan has entered clinical phase II and its overseas revenue is expected to double in 21 years
1) pipeline under research: polyethylene glycol irinotecan, a long-acting antitumor drug developed by the company in cooperation with Sansheng pharmaceutical, has entered phase II clinical practice. At present, the clinical progress is smooth, and 2 patients have been enrolled. It is expected that 60-120 patients can be enrolled in 22 years.
2) globalization: thanks to the continuous expansion of overseas peg application scenarios, the company added more than 10 preclinical and phase I orders in 2021, which is expected to double in the whole year. In addition, in 2022, the company is expected to realize the commercialization of one drug overseas.
Investment suggestion: as the leader of China's peg industry, the company has mastered the core know-how technology. With the continuous enrichment of PEG application scenarios, the company's pipeline under research is promoted in an orderly manner, and the company's future performance growth is uncertain. If we do not consider the impact of equity incentive fees, we expect the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 to be RMB 351 / 524 / 697 million, and the net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 175 / 256 / 341 million, corresponding to PE multiple of 77 ×/ fifty-three ×/ forty ×。 For the first coverage, give a "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: covid-19 epidemic situation in the world is repeated; Product development is not as expected; Risk of centralized purchase; Risk of customer order loss.
