\u3000\u3000 Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) (002821)
Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) release the performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, it is expected to achieve revenue of 4.505 billion yuan – 4.662 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 43% – 48% (excluding the impact of exchange rate, an increase of 52-57%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.040-1.076 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 44% – 49%; The non net profit attributable to the parent company was 908-940 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 41% – 46%.
Q4 is expected to achieve revenue of 1.675 billion yuan – 1.73 billion yuan in a single quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 57% – 62% (excluding the impact of exchange rate, an increase of 62-67%); The net profit attributable to the parent company is 345-381 million yuan, and the non net profit attributable to the parent company is 312-344 million yuan.
Viewpoint: the performance continues to grow rapidly, and the development of emerging businesses is strong. Quarterly, q1-3 achieved revenue of 777 million yuan (+ 63.45%), 983 million yuan (+ 24.36%), 1.163 billion yuan (+ 42.43%), and Q4 increased by more than 57%; Excluding the impact of exchange rate, the acceleration of operation is more prominent. The growth rate of Q4 in a single quarter is 62% – 67%, and the annual growth rate is 52% – 57%. The high growth trend continues.
In terms of sectors, small molecule cdmo remains the leader in the industry. It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of sector revenue will exceed 45% (excluding exchange rate growth rate of more than 50%), and Q4 single quarter growth will exceed 65% (excluding exchange rate growth rate of more than 70%); The emerging business sector is developing rapidly, with the development of chemical macromolecules, biological macromolecules, cdmo, preparations, clinical cro and other emerging business sectors. The revenue of the new business sector increased by more than 65% year-on-year, and more than 70% after excluding exchange.
The release of production capacity is accelerated to ensure the full volume of performance. With Tianjin as the center, the company has established a number of small molecule R & D and production bases and biological macromolecule bases in Fuxin, Liaoning, Dunhua, Jilin and Jinshan, Shanghai. According to the disclosure of China Daily, the company’s capacity construction is accelerating. The large-scale application of continuous reaction technology further improves the reaction efficiency and yield, effectively improves the output value, reduces the cost and increases the efficiency. In response to the strong growth of service order demand, the company is still increasing investment in capacity matching, and the landing speed continues to improve. The accelerating realization of production capacity provides a solid foundation for the company to realize the full coverage of production services from clinical to commercialization, from raw materials to cGMP intermediates and API integration, and ensures the full volume of performance.
Small molecule cdmo has successively received large orders, and the strong performance growth in 2022 is determined. On November 17 and November 29, 2021, the company successively announced the signing of heavy orders worth US $480 million and RMB 2.720 billion, highlighting the strength of small molecule cdmo services. The total amount of the two orders is about 5.8 billion yuan, and the supply time is 2022. The company has been deeply engaged in the field of cdmo for 20 years, and the successive signing of heavy orders ensures that the performance will continue to grow rapidly in the short term, and once again confirms the leading position of the company in the small molecule cdmo industry. In December 2021, the company was officially listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange. The dual listing is conducive to the company’s continuous promotion of capacity construction and the development of emerging service sectors, and the company’s development has entered the fast lane. We expect that under the guarantee of positive implementation of production capacity, heavy orders are expected to be fully released in 2022, and the company’s performance growth in 2022 is determined to be strong; The vigorous development of small molecule cdmo can accumulate brand reputation, consolidate customer stickiness, provide strong support for growth businesses such as chemical and biological macromolecular cdmo, preparations and clinical cro, help the company expand customer groups, practice the “two wheel drive” strategy and realize the sustainable development of the whole business map.
Profit forecast and investment rating. We predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.056 billion yuan, 1.891 billion yuan and 2.217 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 46.2%, 79.1% and 17.3% respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 80x, 45x and 38x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of customer demand change; Market environment uncertainty risk; Exchange rate fluctuation risk
