\u3000\u3000 Chengdu Olymvax Biopharmaceuticals Inc(688319) (688319)
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021, and it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 100 million ~ 115 million, with a year-on-year increase of 177% ~ 218%. It is expected to realize a net profit of 87 million yuan to 102 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 217% ~ 272%, and the performance is in line with market expectations.
The performance was in line with market expectations, and tetanus vaccine grew steadily. In terms of quarters, the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 22 million yuan to 37 million yuan in Q4, with a significant year-on-year increase. Calculated by the top edge of the performance range, the company achieved stable growth month on month (q1-3). The company's tetanus vaccine has achieved stable volume in three channels: trauma clinic, dog injury clinic and blood product enterprises. According to our forecast data and batch issuance data, it is expected that the company's tetanus vaccine sales will reach about 2.6 ~ 2.8 million in 2021. At the same time, in 2022, with the continuous promotion of the sales team and the further improvement of people's awareness of vaccination, we expect the company's tetanus vaccine to increase significantly. At the same time, the company obtained the first batch of issuance and marketing of AC conjugate vaccine in 2021, and is expected to maintain a stable growth trend in the future.
Staphylococcus aureus vaccine is expected to carry out phase III clinical in 2022q1 and is expected to be on the market in 2025. As a global innovative variety, Staphylococcus aureus vaccine is expected to fill the gap in the world. The company plans to complete phase III clinical trial in about two years and do production registration in one year. The products are expected to be listed in 2025. It is estimated that the number of closed fracture surgeries in China will be about 1.34 million in 2030, of which 80% of the infected people will be vaccinated. According to the price of 3 doses per person, a total of 3000 yuan, the Staphylococcus aureus vaccine can correspond to the sales scale of 960 million, driving the rapid and large-scale performance of the company. At the same time, the company's Staphylococcus aureus vaccine is expected to be exported to overseas markets as a global innovative variety in the future, so as to strengthen the company's international influence.
R & D innovation oriented, two-way internationalization strategy to the world. The company adopts the product development strategy of "traditional vaccine upgrading + innovative vaccine development", and the multi product R & D pipeline is advancing in an orderly manner. For traditional vaccine products, the production and registration of key varieties of AC Hib triple vaccine products will be completed in 2022, and it is expected to be put on the market in 2023. In the field of innovative vaccines, the key species of group A Streptococcus vaccine also has the global leading attribute. Group A Streptococcus vaccine has applied for phase I clinical trial in Canada and is expected to apply for clinical trial in China from 2022 to 23.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 0.28 yuan, 0.64 yuan and 1.02 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 112, 48 and 30 times respectively. Tetanus vaccine, the company's core variety, continued to grow rapidly, driving the company's rapid growth; Staphylococcus aureus vaccine, a heavy product under development, has been successfully promoted in clinical practice and has the attribute of global originality. It is expected to achieve a breakthrough in the global blank, become a global heavy variety and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the sales of existing products are lower than expected, and there is a risk of failure in the R & D of Staphylococcus aureus vaccine.
