\u3000\u3000 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) (600809)
Company announcement 2021 performance forecast; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 5.234-5.542 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 70% – 80%. After deducting non recurring profits and losses, the net profit will be 5.173-5.477 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 70% – 80%. According to this calculation, in the fourth quarter of 2021, the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 360-660 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of – 42.6% to + 7.3%.
On the product side, we “focus on blue and white, strengthen the waist and stabilize the glass Fen”, and speed up the nationalization of the channel side. The company adheres to the brand upward strategy, and the sales proportion of medium and high-end Qinghua Fenjiu series has increased steadily under the guidance of Qinghua 30 (revival version); Waist old Baifen, Panama and other products are gradually gaining momentum; Bofen has developed steadily under the strict control of the company. The company continues to deepen the “1357 + 10” market layout, stabilize the basic market around Shanxi, seize the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, and strengthen market expansion in the south of the Yangtze River. There are more than 1 million controllable terminal outlets nationwide; Focus on the banquet group purchase channel, and continuously optimize the dealer structure and channel. The upgrading of product structure and the acceleration of national layout are double driven. The company continued to increase at a high rate in 2021 and exceeded the target at the beginning of the year.
The new chairman took office and “pursued the victory and seized the momentum”. At the beginning of 2021, the company completed the optimization of marketing organization structure and completed the replacement of new and old marketing backbone; Blue and white 30 (revival version) entered the price of 1000 yuan and released blue and white 40 to further enhance the brand share. On January 7, 2022, Mr. Yuan Qingmao was elected as the new chairman of the company and put forward four “focuses” and four “insistences”: focusing on the optimization of market structure, product structure, quality and management; Adhere to enhancing strategic concentration, deeply excavating cultural connotation, deepening state-owned enterprise reform and strengthening risk prevention and control. The potential energy of state-owned enterprise reform bonus + brand rejuvenation will continue, and the internal driving force will drive the company to move towards better structure, better efficiency and higher quality.
The fragrance faucet is gaining momentum, 2022 is expected to have a “good start”. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company has basically achieved the target of 30% growth in operating revenue at the beginning of the year. In the fourth quarter, the company strengthened channel control, optimized the dealer structure and increased the cultivation of consumers. By the end of 2021, the company’s channel inventory was very low, the channel profit increased steadily, and the consumer market order continued to improve, making 2022 a “good start” “Lay a solid foundation.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company’s operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 20.896 billion yuan, 27.330 billion yuan and 34.172 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 5.421 billion yuan, 7.444 billion yuan and 9.397 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 4.44, 6.10 and 7.70 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price is 60 / 44 / 35 times respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic repeatedly affects residents’ consumption, intensifies industrial competition and food safety accidents
