\u3000\u3000 Ingenic Semiconductor Co.Ltd(300223) (300223)
Events
On the evening of January 24, the company released the performance forecast. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 808 million yuan ~ 984 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1003.94% ~ 1244.82%, and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company will be 777 million yuan ~ 954 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3693.01% ~ 4553.49%. The performance is in line with the expectation.
Commentary
The net profit has increased significantly and the profitability has been continuously enhanced. In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 810 ~ 980 million, with a year-on-year increase of 1003.9% ~ 1244.8%, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 780 ~ 950 million, with a year-on-year increase of 3693% ~ 4553.5%. In a single quarter, 21q4 achieved a net profit of 160 ~ 340 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 239.2% ~ 584.3% and a month on month increase of – 38.2% ~ 24.6%. Profits continued to grow year-on-year, highlighting the continued strong market demand and increasing profitability of each product line. By business:
1) the intelligent automobile promotes the strong demand of the terminal market, and the vehicle storage can be expected in the future. Benefiting from the increased demand for autonomous driving and new energy vehicles, the scale of vehicle storage chip market will continue to expand, with DRAM and NAND as the focus of demand. We expect that the number of DRAM and NAND for single vehicle will increase by 5 ~ 10 times in 21-25 years, and the value of single vehicle will increase exponentially. The overall scale of vehicle storage market will reach 8.8 billion US dollars in 25 years and 53% CAGR in 21-25 years.
2) high prosperity of aiot and accelerated layout of high-end products of IPC business. The company mainly benefited from the high boom of aiot industry and the outbreak of demand in fields such as distance education and security cameras driven by the impact of the epidemic. The company accelerated the layout of high-end products. At present, the company’s IPC products mainly include all kinds of battery cameras, AI cameras and industry cameras, covering all kinds of high, medium and low-end products. In the past 21 years, the company accelerated the layout of high-end products, especially products in the fields of AI cameras and industrial cameras. For example, C100, a professional video conference camera product, has begun mass production. IPC chips with AI computing power have accelerated the promotion and actively developed chips for the security back-end market in order to make up for the short board.
3) the on-board lighting market continues to improve, and the LED driven business grows rapidly. Benefiting from the outbreak of the vehicle lighting market, the revenue of analog chips with high gross profit margin has increased rapidly (21h1 increased by 783.5% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin exceeded 50%), we are optimistic that the company’s analog business will continue to grow rapidly in the next 3-5 years.
Investment advice
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-23 years will be RMB 868 / 12.04 / 1476 million respectively, corresponding to EPS of 1.8 / 2.5 / 3.1, corresponding to PE of 76 / 55 / 45, and continue to maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Risk of insufficient capacity; exchange-rate risks; The risk of lifting the ban on stocks; Goodwill impairment risk, etc.
