\u3000\u3000 Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) (603986)
On January 24, Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) released the performance forecast. It is estimated that the company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.28 ~ 2.42 billion yuan in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 158.88 ~ 174.78%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 2.167 ~ 2.307 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 290.25 ~ 315.46%.
21q4 achieved rapid growth in performance. In the fourth quarter alone, the company's 21q4 profit was about 630 ~ 770 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 204 ~ 272%. Although there was a decline month on month, considering the possible asset impairment loss caused by the goodwill impairment test results, at the same time, the company also accrued some bonuses, which still performed well after restoration.
In the past 21 years, norflash has strong market demand and continuously optimized its product structure. In 2021, the demand in the terminal market continued to be strong. The company actively explored new markets and customers, optimized the product and customer structure, and made an increasing contribution to the revenue in industrial and other fields. The whole line of 2m ~ 2GB vehicle specification norflash was paved. In addition, the company's 55nm node norflash revenue has continued to increase, reaching 30% in 21q3, and the cost has been continuously optimized. We believe that although the price of consumer grade norflash has been reduced previously, due to the continuous strong demand in industries, communications, automobiles and other fields, there is still room for further price increase of medium and large capacity norflash, and the company's 22q1 revenue is expected to continue to maintain high-speed growth.
The self-developed brand DRAM is expected to increase in volume this year. The company's self-developed brand DRAM has been mass produced in June 21, with 19nm4gbddr4 products. The self-developed product realizes the comprehensive localization from design, streaming, sealing, testing and verification, and is applied to set-top box, TV, monitoring and other markets. The company's current planned products include DDR3 / DDR4 / lpddr4, with a capacity of 1 ~ 8GB. It is expected to mass produce 17nm DRAM chips this year. In addition, the company's vehicle specification DRAM chip is also under research and development, and the product line is constantly enriched. In 2022, the company will continue to launch DRAM self-developed new products. It is estimated that the amount of self-developed DDR3 and DDR4 purchased from Changxin storage is 860 million yuan, and we expect to contribute about 1.65 billion yuan of revenue.
MCU product structure is continuously optimized. In the past 21 years, the demand of MCU market segments from industry, automobile, household appliances, consumption and so on has remained strong. The company's revenue in the field of industry + automobile accounts for about 30%, and the product structure has been continuously optimized. Up to now, the company has more than 370 products in 28 series, and is still expanding its categories. The latest vehicle specification MCU product is expected to be mass produced around the middle of 2022, mainly for entertainment systems. In the future, MCU of different categories will be developed for body, cockpit, power system and other fields, which is expected to improve the long-term revenue space. We are optimistic about the long-term growth of the company's MCU business.
Investment suggestion: we predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 / 22 / 23 is expected to reach 2.41/33.4/4.03 billion yuan, and the corresponding current price PE is 41 / 30 / 25 times respectively. As a global storage leader, norflash + MCU + DRAM triple power has strongly boosted growth and continuously expanded applications in industrial and automotive fields. With significant long-term growth and prominent investment value, the company maintains the "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected; Upstream capacity supply is limited; Market competition intensifies.
