\u3000\u3000 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) (600809)
Key investment points
Event: Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) announcement: the company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the shareholders of Listed Companies in 2021, ranging from 5.234 billion yuan to 5.542 billion yuan, an increase of 2.155 billion yuan to 2.463 billion yuan over the same period of last year, a year-on-year increase of 70% - 80%; It is estimated that in 2021, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non recurring profits and losses will be 5.173 billion yuan - 5.477 billion yuan, an increase of 2.13 billion yuan - 2.434 billion yuan over the same period of last year, a year-on-year increase of 70% - 80%.
The performance is in line with expectations and the growth is benign under the quota system. According to the announcement of the company, the net profit in 2021 is expected to be 5.234 billion yuan - 5.542 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 70% - 80%, corresponding to the net profit attributable to the parent company of 21q4 of 355-663 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 42.52% - + 7.32%. The performance of Q4 basically meets the expectation. According to the channel feedback, Q4 continues the quota system policy, and the channel inventory is low under the control of delivery. Under this environment, the report is in line with the expectation, reflecting the strong dynamic sales of the terminal, and leaving enough space for a good start in 2022.
In the past 21 years, the price of Fen Liquor continued to rise, and blue and white liquor will be seen in 2022. In 2021, except for Moutai, most other Baijiu prices changed little, while Fenfen in Fenjiu was a rigid demand. According to today's wine price data, the price of each box was 500 yuan, and the channel profit was very rich. The wholesale price of blue and white 20 increased by about 30 yuan to 380 yuan year-on-year; The revived version of blue and white 30 successfully replaced the old version of blue and white 30, and the rating jumped from 600 + to 800 +. Looking forward to 2022, the proportion of Qinghua Fen Liquor in the market around Shanxi is mostly 30-40%, which still has great room for improvement compared with the southern market. 400 + times of high-end price belt is the main force of political and business banquets, and the catering and wedding banquet market will continue to expand. The consumption capacity of East China and South China market is strong, with blue and white accounting for a high proportion. The development of the south market will also drive the improvement of the company's overall product structure. It is expected that Bofen will continue to control the volume in 2022, and the quota of some dealers will be reduced; Blue and white 20 is the main growth thrust; Blue and white 30 revival edition will continue to invest as the focus of brand image and fully participate in the competition of 1000 yuan price belt; In addition, Xinghua village and personalized brands have completed the integration goal of the first stage and return to the strategy of three brands going hand in hand, which is expected to contribute additional increment to the company.
Continue excellent management and deepen reform. At the dealer conference at the end of the 21st century, the current problems and development objectives were clarified, and the original intention of reform was emphasized. The future will focus on the overall reform policy of Fen Liquor Marketing in 133238 and continue to reform with the market as the center. In 2022, the distillery will vigorously promote the assessment and incentive policies for the sales volume, terminal and word-of-mouth indicators of Qinghua Fen Liquor, and fight a tough battle for product structure and brand. Aiming at the problem of unbalanced regional development: consolidate and expand the large base market; Focus on resources in East China market and make great strides in development; The South China market will continue to attract investment and cultivate, and become a new growth pole in 3-5 years. In terms of information construction, the front-end data system ensures the high-quality growth under benign inventory in 21 years. In 22 years, it will focus on the construction of medium-sized data system to realize the wide connection of large B, small B and C ends, and the market control ability is expected to be further enhanced.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: maintain the "buy" rating. According to the performance range announced by the company, we slightly lowered the profit forecast. It is estimated that the total operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 20.807/26777/33.729 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 48.73% / 28.69% / 25.96%; The net profit was 5.485/7.448/9.757 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 78.14% / 35.78% / 31.00%, the corresponding EPS was 4.50/6.10/8.00 yuan (the previous value was 4.59/6.23/8.16 yuan), and the corresponding PE was 60, 44 and 34 times respectively. Key recommendations.
Risk warning: the global epidemic continues to spread; Secondary high-end competition intensifies; Food safety issues.
