\u3000\u3000 Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) (002032)
Event: the company issued the performance forecast for 2021. The company expects to achieve an operating revenue of 21.586 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 16.07%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.877 billion yuan - 2.013 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.67% - 9.03%; It is expected to realize a net profit of RMB 1.697 billion to RMB 1.824 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 6.38% - 14.34%. In a single quarter, Q4 is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 5.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 636 million yuan to 772 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 17% - 0.9%.
From the perspective of income, the growth of domestic sales business is stable, and the export business has achieved good growth. According to the calculation of export related party transactions previously released by the company, we expect the growth rate of Q4 domestic sales to be 12.54% and that of export sales to be 10.78%. Considering that some income from export sales has not been recognized, the actual growth rate of domestic sales is better. According to ovicloud data, while the average price of traditional categories such as rice cookers and electric pressure cookers has rebounded, Q4's online share remains the first, and it also takes the lead in emerging categories such as air fryers and wall breakers. From the perspective of profitability, the price of raw materials is still high + the decline of export gross profit leads to pressure on the profit side. On the one hand, the price of bulk raw materials outside China has continued to rise this year, and the bulk price is still high, which is detrimental to the profitability of the company; On the other hand, the gross profit margin of export business continues to be under pressure. According to the data disclosed in the 21 year interim report, the gross profit margin of export business is only 14%. It is expected that the pressure on the gross profit margin of export Q4 will be more serious under the rise of raw materials. With the promotion of channel reform, the transformation of demand insight and the transformation of marketing efficiency, the growth of the company's revenue side is worry free. From the perspective of effect, 1) the company's strong categories have pricing power again, and the share of emerging categories has increased significantly; 2) Accelerate the pace of promoting new products, strengthen the ability of consumers to solve pain points, and continue to promote the high-end of advantageous categories; 3) Layout of new media, clearer marketing expense policy, and higher communication efficiency between brand and dealers.
With the improvement of profit distribution efficiency, production efficiency and cost investment efficiency of the industrial chain, the profit side space of the company is sufficient. 1) The essence of channel reform is the redistribution of profits in the industrial chain and the thickening of corporate profits through direct marketing; 2) Improve production efficiency, upgrade product structure and increase the company's gross profit; 3) Direct marketing and agent operation of dealers have improved the efficiency of brand cost investment.
Looking forward to 2022, the domestic expansion capacity still drives the stable growth of income, the export space still exists, and the profit elasticity is relatively certain. From the perspective of domestic sales, the logic of the company's continuous expansion of products to drive revenue growth remains unchanged, and the positive impact of price adjustment at the end of 21 is expected to be realized in the statement of 22 years; From the perspective of export sales, Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) with its leading production efficiency, is expected to further undertake SEB's production orders, and the decline of raw material costs can bring greater performance flexibility.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. The company's short-term performance is flexible, there is no need to worry too much about the medium-term competition pattern, and the ability to expand products at low prices of long-term big brands remains. We expect the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 23 to be RMB 1.944/24.83/2.857 billion, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the cost of raw materials continues to rise, the competition pattern worsens, and the promotion of innovation is less than expected
