\u3000\u3000 Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) (000425)
In 2021, the net profit was 5.5-6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 48% ~ 61%, and the performance was in line with expectations
Company announcement: it is expected to realize a net profit of 5.5 ~ 6 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 48%% ~ 61%; The net profit after deducting non-profit was 5 ~ 5.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 42% ~ 56%, and the performance was basically in line with expectations. The net profit center in 2021 is 5.75 billion yuan. We estimate that the net interest rate in 2021 is about 7%, an increase of 2pct year-on-year; Among them, Q4 achieved a net profit of 1.14 billion yuan in a single quarter, with a net interest rate of about 8%, up 3PCT year-on-year.
The draft of absorbing and merging XCMG Co., Ltd. is released, and the income scale of "new XCMG" is expected to become the largest in China
After the listed company absorbs and merges XCMG Co., Ltd., its construction machinery assets such as excavators (the second largest share in China), concrete machinery (the third largest share in China), mining machines and tower cranes will be injected into the listed company. It is estimated that the net profit of XCMG's Excavator + tower crane will reach about 2.3 billion in 2021, the net profit of listed companies will be about 5.8 billion, and the pro forma net profit of "new XCMG" after asset injection will be about 8.1 billion.
In the long run, the mixed reform and employee stock ownership will improve the operation efficiency, and the profitability of "new XCMG" will continue to improve
In the long run, XCMG has completed the mixed reform, and the capital of the employee stock ownership platform has increased by 870 million yuan. After the reform, the vitality is released, the management is improved, and the product structure is optimized. The profitability of "new XCMG" will continue to improve. We expect the overall long-term net interest rate of "new XCMG" to increase from 4.4% in 2020 to more than 10%. According to the third quarterly report of XCMG, the revenue of XCMG from January to September in 2021 was 95.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36%; The net profit was 7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 183%. The net interest rate was 7.3%, a year-on-year increase of 3.8pct.
Special bonds were issued in advance, and major projects were started in various regions. Under the expectation of steady growth, the expected margin of demand was improved
According to the estimation of the Construction Machinery Association, the operating revenue of the construction machinery industry will exceed 800 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of more than 3%. In 2021, 340000 excavators and 49000 truck cranes were sold respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 5% and - 9% respectively.
At the beginning of 2022, special bonds were issued in advance, and major projects were started in various regions. Under the expectation of steady growth in the first quarter, the expected margin of demand was improved; It is expected that with the weakening of the base effect, the commencement of major projects will boost procurement confidence, the decline range of construction machinery represented by excavators will narrow in the second quarter, and it is expected to increase positively in some months in the third and fourth quarters.
Construction machinery is China's current advantageous industry. China's leading import substitution is expected to become a global leader
Construction machinery is China's current advantageous industry. Chinese companies can rely on economies of scale, industrial chain and operation efficiency to achieve a global leading position. The leader of China's construction machinery industry will obtain a considerable market share in the world after completing China's import substitution, and move from China's leader to the global leader.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit from Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) 2021 to 2023 will be 5.8/6.5/7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 54% / 12% / 8%, and the corresponding PE will be 7.7 / 6.9 / 6.4 respectively. Maintain buy rating.
Risk tips: 1) capital construction and real estate investment are not as expected; 2) The progress of asset injection was less than expected.
