\u3000\u3000 Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) (002821)
Pre increase: the revenue and profit side slightly exceeded expectations
Pre increase in 2021: in 2021, it is expected to realize revenue of 4.505-4.662 billion (YoY 43% – 48%), net profit attributable to parent company of 1.040-1.076 billion (YoY 44% – 49%), deduction of non net profit of 908-940 million (YoY 41% – 46%). On a quarterly basis, 2021q4 will realize revenue of 1.675-1.730 billion (YoY 57% – 62%), net profit attributable to parent company of 345-380 million (YoY 59.72% – 76.39%), deduction of non net profit of 312-344 million (YoY 66.84% – 83.96%), Slightly more than we had expected.
Strong growth and accelerated reconfirmation
Excluding the impact of exchange, the revenue yoy of 2021 and 2021q4 were 52% – 57% and 62% – 67% respectively, showing the strong growth momentum of the company’s business. In a single quarter, the revenue and net profit to parent YoY in 2021q4 accelerated again compared with Q3 (the revenue and net profit to parent yoy were 42.34% and 39.30% respectively), Verify our previous judgment on the acceleration of revenue and net profit in 2021 (refer to our previous report Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) : order capacity resonance, determination of performance acceleration 20210510, four discussions on the deterministic acceleration trend of performance and long-term ceiling opening 20210726).
Cdmo and emerging businesses go hand in hand, accelerating in 2022
According to the performance forecast: the income of small molecule cdmo in 2021 reached 45% + (deducting the influence of exchange yoy50% +), of which the income of 2021q4 was 65% + (deducting the influence of exchange yoy70% +). In the whole year, the revenue of emerging business segment exceeded 65% (excluding the influence of exchange, yoy70% +), and cdmo business and emerging business showed a high-speed growth momentum. We believe that with the company’s announcement that the revenue of large orders signed by major customers in 2021 (US $481 million + RMB 2.720 billion) will continue to be recognized, the continued acceleration trend of the revenue side in 2022 can still be expected.
Profit forecast and valuation
We expect the company’s EPS to be 4.00, 8.16 and 8.34 yuan / share from 2021 to 2023. The closing price on January 25, 2022 corresponds to 43 times of PE in 2022 (42 times of PE in 2023), maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The risk of declining prosperity of global innovative drug R & D investment, the risk of new business expansion falling short of expectations, competition risk, exchange risk, the risk of performance falling short of expectations, and the risk of new production capacity falling short of expectations.
