\u3000\u3000 Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) (688556)
Key investment points
The performance forecast exceeded market expectations, and the leader of slicing equipment benefited from the high prosperity of downstream photovoltaic
The company's performance forecast exceeds market expectations, and our profit forecast in the in-depth report is the lower limit of the company's forecast. The company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 160-180 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of + 168% - 202%. Wind is unanimously expected to be 150 million yuan, and our profit forecast is 160 million yuan; Deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 160-180 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 267% - 314%; In Q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 50-70 million yuan in a single quarter, with a year-on-year increase of + 171% - 288% and a month on month increase of + 21% - 74%, fully benefiting from the high prosperity of the downstream photovoltaic industry and the three-wheel drive of cutting equipment & consumables & chip OEM.
The demand for cutting equipment and consumables is increasing, and Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) technical advantages are significant, enjoying a high market share
The expansion of silicon wafer factories has driven the demand for cutting equipment and consumables. According to our calculation, the total market space of cutting equipment and consumables from 2021 to 2025 is about 23 billion yuan and 26 billion yuan respectively. Under the trend of large size, the core technical difficulties of slicing link lie in equipment compatibility and silicon wafer yield: first, most of the slicing equipment in the market can not be compatible with large sizes such as 182 and 210, which speeds up the update iteration of slicer; Second, the rate of large-size chips is higher than that of small-size chips, and the yield of large-size chips of some manufacturers is low. Under the trend of slicing, slicing is prone to debris, edge collapse, scratch, TTV, line mark, bending, edge warpage and other problems, which has high requirements for equipment and technology. In 2020, the company launched a new generation of slicing equipment with adjustable wheelbase for large-size silicon wafer cutting to meet the cutting needs of 166mm, 182mm, 210mm and other silicon wafers. For the possible half piece process in the future, the company further solves the problem of thin wire (~ 40) through smaller wheelbase transformation μ m) , half size cutting debris and other problems. In the future, the company is expected to feed the diamond line business through cutting equipment and form a development pattern of "equipment + material" two wheel drive.
Enter the chip OEM, release the performance flexibility, specialization and division of labor, and improve the efficiency of the industrial chain
Facing the two types of customers of silicon chip factory and battery chip factory, Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) 's chip OEM business realizes cost reduction, efficiency increase and quality improvement through professional division of labor, and helps customers operate light assets at the same time. We expect the company to form 5GW capacity in 2021, 16GW capacity in 2022 and 35gw capacity in 2023. For the company, the chip OEM business can better convert the company's R & D into revenue and profit, and fully enjoy the technical dividend. The profit source of the chip OEM service is OEM fee + surplus silicon wafer sales. (1) Under the optimistic assumption, Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) 2021-2023 GW revenue of slice OEM business is RMB 80 million, RMB 70 million and RMB 60 million respectively, and the gross profit margin is 53%, 42% and 35% respectively. (2) Under neutral assumptions, the company's single GW revenue of slice OEM business from 2021 to 2023 is RMB 80 million, RMB 60 million and RMB 50 million respectively, and the gross profit margin is 48%, 37% and 27% respectively. (3) Under the pessimistic assumption, the company's single GW revenue of slice OEM business from 2021 to 2023 is RMB 70 million, RMB 50 million and RMB 50 million respectively, and the gross profit margin is 42%, 30% and 20% respectively.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the downstream photovoltaic industry has a high outlook, and the company continues to benefit as the leader of slicing equipment & consumables; At the same time, develop the chip OEM business, which is expected to usher in new performance growth points. We raised the forecast of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 160 / 3.5 / 540 million yuan to 170 (up 6%) / 350 / 540 million yuan from 2021 to 2023, and the corresponding PE was 62 / 30 / 20x respectively, giving a "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the industry is affected by policy fluctuations, market competition risk and business expansion is less than expected.
