\u3000\u3000 Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) (002240)
Events
The company released the performance forecast for 2021 on the evening of January 25. It is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 830 million yuan – 920 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 2954.31% – 3285.50%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 848 million yuan to 938 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 472.96% – 512.55%; EPS is 1.05-1.16 yuan.
Commentary
Q4 performance slightly exceeded expectations, and the volume and price of lithium salt products rose simultaneously. In 21 years, the net profit attributable to the parent company in q1-q3 was 538 million yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 was 292-382 million yuan, an increase of 18% – 55% month on month. It is estimated that the sales volume of lithium salt products of the company will be about 30000 tons in 21 years, and the sales volume of Q4 will be about 7500 tons. Taking the median net profit of Q4 as 337 million yuan, the corresponding net profit of Q4 per ton is about 45000 yuan.
The global lithium resource layout is diversified, and the resource self-sufficiency rate is expected to increase year by year. Layout of lithium resources of the company: Sichuan yelonggou lithium mine (holding 75%) currently has a lithium concentrate capacity of 70000-80000 tons / year; Sichuan taiyanghekou lithium polymetallic ore (holding 75%) has not been mined yet; Sichuan Murong lithium mine (holding 25.19%) is under exploration; Sabixing Lithium Tantalum mine in Zimbabwe (holding 51%) is under exploration; Argentina sdla Salt Lake (operation right) 2500 tons LCE / year; MT cattlin 60000 T / A and Manono 120000 T / A. With the production of the mine, the self-sufficiency rate of resources of the company is expected to be 20% in 22 years and more than 70% in 25 years.
Sichuan + Indonesia lithium salt base, with the planned capacity of 22-23 years gradually released. At present, the company has a capacity of 28000 T / a of lithium carbonate and 15000 T / a of lithium hydroxide. It plans to have a capacity of 30000 T / a of lithium hydroxide in Sichuan and is expected to be put into operation in 22 years. It plans to have a capacity of 50000 T / A of lithium hydroxide and 10000 t / a of lithium carbonate in Indonesia, and is expected to be put into operation in 23 years. It is estimated that the lithium salt production capacity of the company will be 73000 T / A and 133000 T / a respectively in 22-23 years, and the lithium salt equity production capacity will be 63400 T / A and 102400 T / a respectively.
Profit forecast & investment suggestions
With the operation of sabixing lithium mine in Zimbabwe and Murong lithium mine in Sichuan in the next two years, and the existing yelonggou project, it is expected that the resource self-sufficiency rate of the company will increase year by year in the next three years, 20%, 40% and 60% respectively in 22-24 years. According to the performance forecast of 21 years, the improvement of resource self-sufficiency rate in 22 and 23 years and the release of lithium salt production capacity, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-23 years was increased by 26%, 72% and 68% to 885 million yuan, 2.537 billion yuan and 4.023 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 102 million yuan, 293 million yuan and 4.65 yuan respectively, and corresponding PE of 52 times, 18 times and 11 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The uncertainty of lithium salt price trend in the later stage increases; The growth rate of lithium salt demand was lower than expected
