\u3000\u3000 Betta Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300558) (300558)
Events
On January 25, 2022, the company issued a performance forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue in 2021 will be 2.2 ~ 2.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 17.62% ~ 22.98%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 380-430 million, a year-on-year decrease of 29.09% ~ 37.33%. However, excluding the one-time investment income of 293 million obtained from the sale of BeDa pharmaceutical technology in 2020, the actual net profit attributable to the parent company increased by about 21.4% ~ 37.3% year-on-year; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 351 ~ 401 million, with a year-on-year increase of 5% ~ 20%. The performance is in line with expectations.
Comments
Innovation drives growth. Under the environment of centralized pharmaceutical procurement in 2021, the revenue and net profit still increased by nearly 20%. The company's revenue mainly comes from the first generation of EGFR-TKI ektinib and the first domestic ALK inhibitor ensatinib. Ektinib continued to maintain its market position, with sales of 1.574 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2021; The market share of ensatinib gradually increased, with sales of 120 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2021.
R & D in the field of cancer has been comprehensively promoted, new drugs have been approved and clinical progress is steady. (1) Kemena, the company's product, is the first lung cancer targeted drug independently developed in China and has been on the market for more than 10 years. Focusing on the comprehensive layout of lung cancer combination therapy, the company has more than 40 research projects, with R & D accounting for 37% - 42%. (2) In June 2021, Kemena's approved indications increased to 3, and the indications for postoperative adjuvant treatment of NSCLC were added; In November, 2021, bevacizumab was approved, and six new indications were accepted in December, or it became the first bevacizumab equivalent to the original indications of bevacizumab; In December 2021, the first-line treatment of NSCLC by bemena was included in the priority approval procedure. In addition, in March 2021, the third generation EGFR-TKI bevotinib mesylate capsule and the first domestic class 1 new drug voronib tablet for the treatment of renal cancer in January 2022 were accepted by nmpa. Bpi-23314, bpi-361175, bpi-21668, mcla-129, bpi-421286, batilizumab, zefrizumab, bpi-16350 and other projects have been approved for clinical trials. (3) Kemena and bemena have successfully entered the new medical insurance, and the sales volume can be expected. Kemena single drug first-line, single drug second-line, postoperative adjuvant treatment indications; The second-line treatment of ALK gene mutation NSCLC by bemena was successfully included in the medical insurance catalogue.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We maintain the profit forecast: the company is expected to achieve a revenue of RMB 2.248/31.42/4.151 billion in 2021 / 22 / 23, with a year-on-year increase of 20.19% / 39.79% / 32.10%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 427 / 611 / 796 million, with a year-on-year increase of - 29.54% / 43.12% / 30.12%. The current share price corresponds to 66 / 46 / 35 times of PE in 2021 / 22 / 23, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Risks such as the failure of new product R & D and commercialization to meet expectations, and the impact of changes in regulatory policies on the growth of the industry.
